每日新闻更新 — 年初至今的股票回报被一笔勾销以及贷款标准的“极度下滑” The Daily Update – Equity YTD Returns Erased and "Huge Deterioration" in Loans

昨天,标准普尔500指数本月第二次跌幅超过了3%。前三季度年初至今11%的回报率在本月下降至可怜的0.88%;大多数2018年期间进入股市的人现在都会遭受损失(除非他们是在指数低于现在水平的206个交易日中的21个交易日中的一日内进入的)。到目前为止,10月份期间下跌日有14个,上涨日仅有4个,市场正在四处张望并猜测有多少人已充分做好了探底的准备,并且有足够的信心冒险在股票价格最低的时候买入。即使本季度有更多的收益继续超过预期,但是目前市场对此似乎并不在乎。上个季度,击败预期的每股盈利报告导致了为期1天的市场价格平均上涨1.2%;到目前为止,本季度小数点前的数字为零,平均值仅为0.2%。

由于现任政府放松了监控措施(或者更准确地说是消除了安全栏),这些数据越来越多地反映出美国各地的贷款标准越来越松。目前,美联储前主席珍妮·特耶伦(Janet Yellen)已向《金融时报》表达了她的担心,“现在的标准已经大幅度下滑,杠杆贷款中的契约已经放松;她“担心跟这些贷款相关的系统性风险。”耶伦强调说,“正是(银行)所做的这一切才给整个金融体系带来风险。在我看来,这一教训似乎已经失去被“遗忘”,“如果我们的经济衰退,就会有很多公司破产”。

在这个不稳定的10月份,这是本月的第三天波动率指数已经超过25。尽管欧洲市场指向短期反弹,跟2017年和2016年的稳定增长相比,对于股票来讲2018年绝对是不平凡的一年,(股民)最近遭受的巨大的损失已经是板上钉钉的事情。如果贷款的标准继续下滑,如果投资者对强劲的企业盈利厌倦情绪持续下去,伴随着标准普尔指数今年可能出现的负面表现,那么本月出现三次下跌3%的可能性越来越大。当然,虽然令市场担心的并不是下一个下跌日,但是之后的那个下跌日便是令市场担心的日子;这次的情况不是2015年和2011年平平的表现的重复,而是再现市场对银行以及最终持有这些杠杆贷款的人失去信心的局面。因为如果法规放松太多,如果必要的宏观审慎监管工具未能实现,美国政府可能会意识到,人们无法拿信心跟经济增长进行交易,原因是长期的增长需要信心。

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