每日新闻更新 — 国际货币基金组织和债务违约内的债务违约 The Daily Update – IMF and a default within a default

在国际货币基金组织和姊妹机构世界银行准备下周在巴厘岛召开189个成员国年会之际,它们就美中之间目前贸易战产生的影响发出了警告。它们将今年和明年世界经济的增长率下调0.2%至3.7%,但这一重大变化将发生在2020年,它们认为贸易紧张局势的持续可能会使全球经济增长率下降0.8%。这些组织还警告说,如果特朗普总统实施所有升级的威胁,那么根据其模型,最早到明年中国的产量就可能会下降1.6%,美国则会下降0.9%。

此外,令国际货币基金组织担心的是“利率更大幅度的上升”,因为这将加速新兴经济体的资本外逃。因此,由于包括持续收紧信贷条件在内的诸多因素,它们降低了阿根廷、巴西、伊朗和土耳其的增长前景。

它们也将英国的经济增长率调低,目前预计2018年将增长1.4%,2019年将增长1.5%,但其中包括有“与欧盟的贸易关税预计将保持在零,非关税成本可能会适度增长”的警告。(它们)对英国首相比对英国媒体更有信心。

现在让我们把话题迅速切换到波多黎各。这个国家在过去的一些年间发展迅速,已发行价值数十亿美元的债券,目前正试图重新发放约170亿美元的销售税抵押债券(COFINA)。据报道,截至2017年5月,波多黎各已经欠下了740亿美元的债券债务和490亿美元的养老金的无资金负债。

然而,政府和国会设立的“财政监督和管理委员”会所采用的标准正在遭到批评,因为一些观察人士认为,这些标准似乎“通过不切实际的对经济支付能力的评估将未来20年偿还债务的重担压在了波多黎各的头上”。这听起来像一个继续要远离的国家,除非您想从债务违约内寻求债务违约市场。

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