每日新闻更新 — 我们比以往更安全吗?国际货币基金组织对全球金融稳定性的报告 - The Daily Update - Are We Safer? IMF Global Financial Stability Report

从全球金融危机爆发到现在已有十年,我们比之前更安全吗?这是本月国际货币基金组织发布的《全球金融稳定性报告》的标题和主题。该报告是在全球金融危机爆发10周年的时候发布的。经过十年的金融工程和监管改革,问题需要解决的事实本身似乎令人不安。

数百页有用的图表、数据和评论集中在两个关键的主题上。第一章强调了“金融体系的短期风险在过去六个月中有所增加”,似乎以“在许多方面可能不会(发生)”回答了他们自己的问题。第二章较为积极,关注要点在监管改革上,并“发现由国际社会制定的广泛的议程产生了新的标准。这些标准促成了更具弹性的金融体系 — 更少杠杆、更具流动性、更好且更密集地予以监督”,同时也强调需要进一步的工具来遏制随着技术的进步而带来的系统性风险和新的风险。

还有其他一些值得注意的评论。首先,报告称“在几个行业和地区资产估值溢价仍然存在”,“美元走强和美国利率上升使新兴市场的海外借贷成本增加,尤其是那些信贷需求较大,但经济条件或政策框架比较薄弱的市场”。最近,随着美元和利率的上升,人们都可以看到中国和智利等国家的信用利差的稳定,而南非、巴西和土耳其等国的(风险)溢价在飞速上涨。

其次,报告指出了“风险可能急剧上升”的领域,包括:贸易紧张局势的升级、以未能达成协议而告终的脱欧、对债务过重的欧元区财政政策的再度担忧以及快于预期的货币政策的正常化。这些风险中的每一个都会分离脆弱的经济体,这些经济体从某种程度上是依靠宽松的货币政策而粘合在一起的;这些政策帮助了“具有全球系统重要性的金融部门的经济体,使得政府、公司和家庭所欠的债务从10年前的占 GDP 增长率的200%[上升]到今天的近250%。”从十年前已经过度杠杆化的角度沿用杠杆化这一轨迹突出了当前市场发展势头的不可持续性。

最后,国际货币基金组织阐述了“国际合作对于维持全球金融的稳定和促进可持续的经济增长是多么地重要”,这正是人们在对特朗普掀起的的贸易战、英国的脱欧以及欧元区的分歧等问题时所想到的。“倒退、日益失色的多边主义和监管疲劳的风险是真实的,很容易破坏掉在改善金融稳定方面取得的重要进展。”因此,就像监管机构一样,投资者也“必须避免自满”。在使用过度杠杆和不确定因素同时涌现的年代,在接下来的十年,我们将继续倾听,(但)请大家远离那些负债累累的国家:那些如果人为的利率一旦枯竭就会陷入破产的国家,那些资源匮乏得连接下来几个月的利息都无法支付更不用说支付多年来利滚利的本金的那些国家。

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