每日新闻更新 — 意大利面临(欧盟提出的)对预算和量化宽松“资本密钥”进行修改的要求 The Daily Update – Italy Faces Calls for Budget and QE "Capital Key" Revisions

今天早些时候在两个事件发生之后,欧元再次遭受打击,触及兑美元1.14的水平。第一个事件是昨天欧洲委员会前所未有地对意大利政府提出修改其2019年预算的要求;第二个事件是今天又遇到欧洲主要市场 PMI 数据疲弱 — 包括对德国制造业和服务业的预测分别有1和2点的短缺。

欧盟的莫斯科维奇(Moscovici)警告称,意大利公共债务可能无法再持续两年,它们的1.5%的 GDP 增长目标过于乐观;他断言,它们的支出计划违反了该组织的债务限额,因此需要修改。欧盟委员会的副主席瓦尔迪斯·多布罗夫斯基(Valdis Dombrovskis)说,他们未看到“别的选择”,“这是委员会第一次不得不要求欧元区国家修改其预算草案的情况”。由于意大利公共债务占国内生产总值的130%以上(在欧盟范围内仅有希腊超出)仅偿还这笔债务的年度成本已经占 GDP 的4%左右,估计超过650亿欧元。目前也许不是(意大利政府)考虑降低养老金年龄的最佳时机。尽管预算的许多目标都值得赞赏,但是市场甚至欧盟委员会现已表示,尽管“试图用更多的债务来治理债务是诱人的。但到某个点的时候,债务就显得过重,以至于你最终没有任何自由。”

意大利政府已表示不打算退缩,但与欧盟发生这种伤害双方关系的事情实在不是时候;欧洲央行不仅将在今年年底停止购买政府债券,而且随着现有的量化宽松的持有已经期满,还将在下个月修订“资本密钥”计算方法。该计算方法将确定未来几个月几十亿欧元的债券回购的方向。因此,虽然2.5万亿欧元的量化宽松计划即将结束,但在2019年前9个月的时间里,将有大约1200亿欧元的到期债务需要再投资。自从5年前这些分配公式最近一次被确定之后,欧元区各经济体都发生了显著的变化;意大利将成为受这次政策更新惩罚的国家之一,这不仅仅是因为经济因素,还因为量化宽松持有的意大利债务到期的时间均较长。欧洲央行将在高达280亿欧元的2019年意大利债券的续发行中发挥的作用将会更小。但是,此事在意愿投资和意大利赤字之间人为地制造了越来越大的距离,也让欧洲央行与意大利之间已经紧张的关系雪上加霜。

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