每日新闻更新 — 非农就业人数 The Daily Update – Non-Farm Payrolls

本周强于预期的9月份 ADP 报告以及强劲的9月份非制造业 ISM 报告以及美联储主席鲍威尔(Powell)发出的政策“离中性尚远”的评论已经让债券市场饱受压力。最近的玻璃杯看上去是半空的而不是半满的。在资助迅速增长的财政赤字的目标上,持续且繁重的美国国债发行计划并没有帮助到所有的这一切。在这个周期的这个阶段,美国的财政刺激政策显著增加了政策错误的风险,而贸易紧张局势对全球增长前景构成了重大风险。在所有这些不确定性的情况下,在人们质疑这一段美国经济的强劲增长是否具有可持续性发展的声音中,就业报告引起了人们浓厚的兴趣。

今天的9月份非农就业数据显示,增加了134,000个就业岗位,低于预期欲创建的185,000个岗位,尽管前一个月的数字从201,000个上调至270,000个。很显然,受佛罗伦萨飓风的影响,数据可能会出现一些扭曲:BLS 指出,由于天气恶劣,有299,000人没有上班。失业率小幅下降至3.7%,为1969年以来的最低水平,但与2018年 FOMC 的预测是一致的;他们预计2019年的失业率将降至3.5%。参与率保持不变,仍为62.7%。重要的是,平均每小时收入符合预期,同比上涨2.8%,而上个月的同比增长为2.9%。

虽然市场对进一步紧缩政策的预期有所增加,但通胀预期仍然被牢牢锚定:五年期美国盈亏平衡率仍然接近2%,今年很舒适地处于该范围的中间。事实上,美联储主席鲍威尔在10月2日的讲话中评论道:“我们将近年来通货膨胀的稳定性归因于对长期通胀预期的锚定。而且我们也意识到,假如这些预期大幅度漂移,那(我们)可能要付出巨大的代价。正如大家可能从我们的公共交流中了解到的那样,在预期方面,我们会对基于调查和市场的代理进行仔细的监控;而且我们并没有看到长期预期方面有什么重大转变的证据。”

较长期债券深深受到通胀前景的影响,因此较长期国债在我们的模型中看起来出现超卖现象。此外,由于美国国债空头头寸处于较高水平,10年期国债目前实际收益率接近1%,因此在某个时间点上有可能会出现残酷的空头回补反弹。

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