每日新闻更新 — 警惕危机前出现的垃圾债券风险溢价的信号 The Daily Update – Pre-Crisis Junk Premiums Signals Caution

今天创下新低的不仅是阿斯顿马丁的股价和美国总统的税务丑闻,还有投机性债券风险溢价。美国垃圾债券的利差已降至全球金融危机前的最低水平。在美联储最近一次加息和持续流入超过填补次级投资级债务供应之后,美国10年期国债收益率下跌3.03%至3.11%之间,昨天收益率差异达到自2007年7月以来的最低水平。

推动投资者投资具有更多投机性基本面的资产的其他因素当然是对收益率以及美国企业一系列普遍稳定的季度收益的追逐。但与其股票一致的是,(所谓的)高收益债券尤其面临盈利预期与市盈率倍数同时下降的相关因素;因为当市场一致认为,我们处于经济周期的后期阶段并且这两者都有所下降时,公司的杠杆作用在他们履行义务的能力蒸发的同时也迅速增加。在危机中,所有这一切都发生在贷款人撤回他们的资金之时,而且投资者争先恐后地寻找安全地带 — 这些人终于害怕失去资金了。

鉴于这种狭窄的垃圾债券溢价成为一个人们熟悉的周期内的后期信号,对投机债券和股票基金的流出、违约率和该领域的贷款信心进行观察就变得越来越重要。在上述方面的任何一个单一因素或者所有因素的加剧都会加强(投资者)撤离到安全地带的理由。但等待所有事实都成为板上钉钉之时几乎不可避免地要落后于曲线;我们仍然相信,更高质量的信贷和避免过度负债的国家和公司已经成为更加明智的投资的基础。(当然,)如果碰对地方,(投资者)仍会找到装着诱人收益的口袋,而不需要去承担和我们认为这个大多是昂贵的高收益的领域相同幅度和量级的那种风险。

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