每日新闻更新 — 到底是人民币在走弱还是美元在走强?The Daily Update – Renminbi weakness or US dollar strength?

本周,美国财政部向美国国会发布了关于美国主要贸易伙伴的宏观经济和外汇政策的半年度报告。根据《1988年综合贸易和竞争法》,财政部长必须“考虑他国是否为了在国际贸易中防止有效的支出调整平衡或者获取不公平的竞争优势而操纵其货币与美元之间的汇率”。此外,根据《2015年贸易便利化和贸易执法法案》,财政部长必须“对主要贸易伙伴的宏观经济和货币政策实施监控,并在这些合作伙伴触发某些客观标准的情况下对这些合作伙伴进行分析,而该标准是为潜在的不公平的货币做法提供洞察力而制定的”。

根据2015年法案,财政部重点关注3个标准和门槛:首先,“双边贸易顺差巨大,达到200亿美元”;第二,“经常账户盈余明显,至少占到国内生产总值的3%”;第三,“在12个月期间内在反复进行外汇净购买并且(该项购买)至少占经济体 GDP 的2%之时发生持续且片面的干预”。

在最新的报告中,美国财政部将中国、日本、韩国、印度、德国和瑞士列为贸易伙伴,其货币实践需要监控,但没有将任何主要贸易伙伴命名为汇率操纵国。财政部发现,没有一个主要贸易伙伴符合他们的所有3个标准。并不令人感到意外的是,尽管中国只符合其中一项标准(严重的双边贸易顺差),但被聚焦的是仍然是中国。该报告指出,中国“占美国整体贸易逆差的不成比例的份额”;“作为进一步措施,本届政府将在监测清单中增加并保留任何在美国整体贸易赤字中占有巨大且不成比例份额的主要贸易伙伴,即使该经济没有达到2015年法案规定的三项标准中的两项。财政部长努钦(Mnuchin)评论说:“特别值得关注的是,中国在货币方面缺乏的透明度,以及近期的货币疲软。这些对实现更公平和更平衡的贸易构成了重大挑战,我们将继续对中国的货币实践实施监测和审查”。

尽管目前人们对人民币兑美元汇率的下跌有很多关注,但考虑到紧张的(中国和)美国的贸易局势,这是在美元走强的背景下出现的。中国政府明确表示,他们没有以削弱汇率的手段来抵消关税的意图。我们认为近期的疲软是暂时的,并且认为这是因为紧张的贸易局势和对增长放缓产生的担忧加剧的;但中国有一个积极的净外国资产(NFA)地位和缓冲空间,可以应对诸如此类的困难。此外,随着诸如丝绸之路项目的进展,人民币的国际化正在不断发展,中国的金融市场在对外开放,越来越多的贸易活动采用人民币计价,人民币也被越来越多地用作储备货币,所有这些仍然是中期时间内的积极的驱动因素。

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