每日新闻更新 — 火种依然存在 The Daily Update – The tinder is still there

去年10月19日,我们写了一篇题为《30年前的今天》的日报,文中说,30年前我们有一个“黑色星期一”。当我重新阅读这篇日报时,我发现最后一段特别有意思。当时我们写道:

那么,我们是否很快就会看到事情的再次发生?(谈到“黑色星期一”)美国股市多年一直处于牛市、资金一直便宜、全球都有资产泡沫、朝鲜、英国脱欧、意大利银行、希腊债务、民粹主义的崛起、消费者债务、自由世界美国的领导人、特朗普与他的敌人和朋友的关系、贸易战/保护主义、处于历史低点的波动度指标(VIX)、可能更换的新的美联储主席、量化宽松政策的解除、中国的“世界大国的新时代”、气候改变、吞食工作机会的自动化、消除通胀的亚马逊,以及如上所述的潜在的流动性的深度。这里有足够的火花;点燃烈火只需一片。

那么,现在就让我们逐个看看上边说的每个问题。

美国股市多年一直处于牛市之中。不错,最近几周出现了调整,但是,它们仍然具有惊人的弹性(道琼斯指数自上周四以来反弹了近700点)。资金很便宜;并且情况仍然如此,请参阅彭博社的文章《一个一万亿美元的火药桶》(‘A $1 Trillion Powder Keg’)。这是一篇谈论廉价资金的非常有趣的文章。朝鲜 — 好吧,特朗普新交的最好的朋友,不过,大家都在猜测这种情况能够持续多久。脱欧 — 英国硬脱欧的可能性比以往任何时候都要大。意大利银行和希腊债务 — 现在您可以将新的意大利民粹主义政府添加到这一特别的担忧之中。消费者债务 — 去年的一份研究报告表明,除了房贷的债务之外,英国每人平均欠款8,000英镑!

然后我们谈到美国以及特朗普和他的敌人和朋友的关系,以及贸易战/保护主义。关于特朗普和世界其他国家的关系以及他和他自己的同胞的关系,我们曾写过多次。最新的令人不愉快的事件是把美联储的货币政策称之为疯狂、神志不清和失去控制。这个指责把美联储的鲍威尔也捎带了进去。量化宽松政策的解除 — 您可以将联邦债务的大幅度增加添加到这个问题上来。

最后,我们谈到中国的“世界大国的新时代”— 既有经济上的“一带一路”倡议,也有军事上的南海战略。气候变化 — 想必您已经看到了最新的联合国报告:欲限制气候变化给我们带来的灾难,我们只有12年的时间。吞食工作机会的自动化,以及扼杀通货膨胀的亚马逊 — 关于后者,我可以负责任地说,每月我都要用我的信用卡给它们支付账单,这些商品全都是我很轻松地在工作地点/家中购买并送货上门的。最后一点可能是人们注意最少的,即潜在流动性的深度 — 我相信这是人们应该密切关注的事情。投资银行不再是对任何和所有资产进行定价的“一站式商店”,这当然会影响到流动性。当您听到受人尊敬的市场资深人士谈论对世界上最具流动性的资产(石油、政府债券和主要外汇对)产生担忧时,我认为这是我们应该密切关注的事情(在我们单位我们会这样做的)。

正如文中最后一行所说,“这里有足够的火花;点燃烈火只需一片”。如果烈火确实燃烧(我个人认为会发生的),别忘了抓紧您的帽子,因为说得轻一点这将是一次有趣的旅程。我的建议是,当您投资时务必把钱借给那些有偿还能力的人。这话(有点耳熟),我从前是从哪里听到来着?

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