每日新闻更新 — 要不要采取T2政策是个难题 The Daily Update – T2 or not T2 that is the question

我们担心欧元区由来已久,特别是对南方成员国的银行;来自德国央行和法国银行的源源不断的资金流动,尤其是流入希腊和意大利的资金,已经引起了这些国家的关注。德国法院已经开始受理这方面的案件。几年前,美联储前主席格林斯潘(Greenspan)就把这种情况提了出来,当时他说这有可能轻而易举地导致欧元的崩溃。

当然,问题的核心是试图为有着不同经济周期的许多国家制定一种货币和一种利率政策。目前,德国需要一个收紧的货币政策,而意大利则需要一个持续宽松的政策。这是显而易见的。

然而,被用于平衡欧元区内不同中央银行需求的系统 — 目标2(简称T2) — 似乎没有安全阀。事实上,该系统类似于一种没有应付利息而且还没有还款时间表的信用卡。事实上,德意志银行拥有巨大的T2贷方余额,而意大利和西班牙的中央银行则拥有相同数额且方向相反的T2借方余额:因为它们是净进口国,而德国则是欧元区内巨大的出口国。

关于这个问题的文章有很多,其中对T2的优点有不同的看法,但很难理解的是,债务的持续增长如何会有利于一个国家的未来前景。正如大多数人所知,我们利用一个国家的净外国资产来决定其信誉,而且该分析清楚地表明意大利的信誉尤为恶化,而德国却一如既往地在向好处发展。根据我们的制度,我们采用的是拿来净外国资产,将其除以GDP,最低投资要求则是GDP的-50%。当一个国家低于这个水平时,很明显,其资产负债表的恶化通常会加速,往往导致需要救助。意大利正在T2的帮助下朝着这个方向迈进。

T2内的良好信用与不良信用之间缺乏区别,因为所有这些信用都被一视同仁。这是我们看到的这个系统的另外一个问题。这种做法现在肯定会鼓励(一些国家)继续借款,因为对于那些不太有偿还能力的国家来说这里边并没有额外的费用。

T2倒是很像我的三个儿子获取资金的方法,即尝试把我当作“旺家”(Wonga)并加以使用,当然不用还款,自然也没有收费、罚款或利息什么的。

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