每日新闻更新 — 英国脱欧协议:现在只需要内阁、欧盟和议会同意就行了 The Daily Update – A Brexit Deal: Now Only Cabinet, EU and Parliament Need To Agree

经过将近600天的等待,英国脱欧的条约草案的消息终于到来了;然而市场显示出他们(期望)的破灭,因为英镑的反弹还不到一便士就疲软了下来,下降到昨天的收盘价之下,在撰稿时,一直在兑美元1.2950之下波动。这里不足的热情反映了对这个协议的政治支持是不足的 — 反对的声音不仅来自留欧派,也来自脱欧派。这些反对者甚至还没有机会来评估这份长达400-500页面的协议草案。鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)表示,他将投票反对这项将使英国遵循不合理的欧盟规则的“(让英国成为)附庸国的东西”。北爱尔兰民主统一党(DUP)的杰弗里·唐纳森(Jeffrey Donaldson)在电台采访中也表示,“这项协议有导致英国解体的可能,我们无法予以支持”。

从昨天下午开始,特雷莎·梅(Theresa May)就一直在给部长们单独介绍协议的条款;今天早上他们在一个特别的阅览室里首次看到了这项协议,梅首相将于下午2点开始跟内阁摊牌。如果梅首相可以得到内阁的支持,那么欧盟委员会应该在今天晚些时候将会公布协议草案的细节,包括在11月25日举行紧急峰会的计划,以便其他27个欧盟成员国签署这项协议。只有到那时,我们才能不幸地看到首相特雷莎·梅和首席党鞭朱利安·史密斯(Julian Smith)等人试图乞求并争取足够的支持,以避免无协议脱欧的发生。(那些知道最初的《纸牌屋》的人到时候可能会让首相和党鞭像弗朗西斯·厄克特(Francis Urquhart)那样让这个协议得到通过。)

从目前的情况来看,该协议的关键点在于为了避免重新对北爱尔兰边境进行实际检查而提出的这项有争议的“补救措施”、英国支付390亿英镑的“离婚法案”和解方案、对英国脱欧后公民权利的承诺、以及为了缓解双方在英国于2019年3月29日离开欧盟后应对都将陷入的混乱局面而安排的21个月的过渡期。尽管如此,随着内阁在接下来的3个小时内举行会议,人们期望他们能够吞下这笔交易的妥协之苦:如果欧洲怀疑论者不相信谈判桌上摆的条件是最好的可接受的条件的话,那么现在的障碍总比完全崩盘要好得多。正如《新政治家》所认为的那样,“工党并没有足够多的反对派可以抵消保守党内的脱欧派,希望再次举行公投的亲欧派保守党员以及北爱尔兰民主统一党的力量。”因此,如果今天的活动和11月25日欧盟的投票按计划顺利进行的话,首相仍将有大量的工作要做,在圣诞节的时候还会祈祷2019年(时来运转)得到幸福和繁荣。与此同时,在一则并不太引人注意的消息中,欧盟委员会还发布了一项《应急行动计划》,尽管其中有一些积极的观点,例如“跟无协议脱欧后果相关的这个[欧盟金融]领域的风险已经显着减少”,但这个快照尖刻地提醒人们在无协议脱欧的情况下可能看到的局面。

此外,以一个稍微积极的口吻(来结束今天的话题),46年前的今天,即1972年11月14日,道琼斯工业平均指数首次收于1,000以上。就在本周早些时候,该指数今年第三次达到了26,000点以上;然而,若包括46年内再投资股息,将使那1,000美元变成了117,247美元,年回报率为10.9%。

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