每日新闻更新 — 全球股市令人毛骨悚然的月份 The Daily Update – A scary month for global equities

10月份看起来将成为6年来全球股市表现最差的月份,目前下跌8%,这可能是标准普尔500指数在8年半以来表现最差的月份。市场上有句格言,“从来没有人因为购买 IBM 而被解雇的”,但是现在看来有问题了。该公司在十月份失去了其价值的四分之一,只在刚刚过去的前三个季度保持了它的价值:市场表现远不如科技领域的同行们。

如果 IBM 可以不予理会,那么作为挽回投资者的情绪和增值的一种方式,回购和收购看上去越来越不可靠。本月公告所说的回购其高达40亿美元的股票并以340亿美元购买红帽充其量也只能帮助 IBM 在让科技类股受到打击的消极表现方面名列前茅而已。在最近几天,所有三家主要评级机构都将该公司置于负面展望,标准普尔和惠誉也将其评级降低一格,从 A+ 降至 A。

在下行的月份这种情况并不罕见,但标准普尔指数中的近505只股票中有将近400只今年10月将出现负面表现。然而,真正一直令人不安的是这个问题的幅度 — 该指数中的几乎200家公司遭遇的下降都超过了10%,其中每10家公司中就有1家下滑至少19%。此外,即使有这些下跌,指数的平均市盈率从前三季度的平均值23下降到了22个;这又回到了过去5年的平均值。盘中高峰到低谷,从9月21日至10月29日下跌超过10%,估值返回到5年的平均值。这两种情况都是明显的校正标记。但在送走10月份和万圣节之后,仍有大量的贸易战的骗术和地缘政治的款待可能会给市场带来另一轮恐慌。

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