每日新闻更新 — 巴西和博索纳罗 The Daily Update – Brazil & Bolsonaro

极右翼候选人雅伊尔·博索纳罗(Jair Bolsonaro)获得55.1%的选票,被选为下一任巴西总统,令人信服地领先于获得44.9%的选票的工人党候选人费尔南多·哈达德(Fernando Haddad)。

博索纳罗的反腐败和反犯罪言论对选民具有明显的吸引力:根据 BFPS,2017年巴西发生了63,880起凶杀案,工人党无法摆脱“熔岩喷射”(Lava Jato)或曰“洗车行动”(Car Wash)的丑闻。2015年和2016年经济也因经济衰退而陷入困境,12%的失业率使得选民倍感挫败,(选民都)希望通过变化迎来更好的时期。为了让巴西走上更加可持续发展的财政道路,博索纳罗和他的经济顾问保罗·盖德斯(Paulo Guedes)提出巴西有必要进行改革;他谈到一些国有企业的私有化以及(需要采取的)强硬措施,包括对因为人口老龄化而产生的高额费用且难以持续的养老金体系进行改革。 然而,博索纳罗也被指责持有种族主义、歧视妇女以及反对同性恋的观点,因此在前方的道路上还大量存在着进一步的分裂和社会极化。

博索纳罗在获胜感言中的评论对于选民来讲有些还是正确的:“我们将打破债务增长的恶性循环,”并以“小额赤字、债务下降和低利率”的良性循环取而代之。尽管如此,博索纳罗将需要其他政党在国会的支持才能推动他的改革议程,因为他的社会自由党(PSL)在下议院获得的席位为52个,而该议院总共由513个席位和30个党派组成。

博索纳罗的胜利在预料之中,资产价格的变化已经反映出其中一部分因素:本月巴西雷亚尔是少数兑美元升值的货币之一(增幅为11.2%),在大部分股票市场下跌的情况下巴西圣保罗指数上涨了约8%,2028年10年期利息为4.625%的巴西美元债券的收益率收紧了37个基点至5.42%(在我们的模型上,对于 BB- 评级的(债券)来讲贵了大约2个评级档次)。然而,博索纳罗直到元月1日才能上任,要让巴西走上一条更可持续发展的增长道路,需要实施的改革会非常艰难。

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