每日新闻更新 —美联储:是否到了应该暂停接近的时候?The Daily Update – Fed: time to pause approaching?

美联储主席鲍威尔(Powell)在10月份发表了令人不安的评论,“我们可能会经过中性利率,但我们现在距离中性或许还很遥远”;9月份的美联储点阵图一直在寻找12月份的加息以及在2019年另外三次25个基点的加息;尽管如此,我们认为也有一些迹象表明出现了更加谨慎的态度。

预计12月份联邦基金目标范围将再增加25个基点。但是,关于到那时是否应该暂停(加息)的辩论似乎正在变得有说服力,尤其是当数据继续表明无论是在美国还是在全球都有进一步放松的势头的时候。鉴于美联储在提高利率的同时又收缩其资产负债表,这场辩论来得特别及时。

亚特兰大联储主席,联邦公开市场委员会投票人拉斐尔·博斯特(Raphael Bostic)最近表示:“我认为我们离中性政策并不太遥远,中性是我们想到达的水平。我们可能还没有完全到达这个水平,但我倾向于认为,我们在前进之时最好采取一种谨慎的方法。”这一观点得到了并无投票权的达拉斯联邦储备银行行长罗伯特•卡普兰(Robert Kaplan)的回应。他也表示,他认为“我们正在接近或即将到达一个中性水平”,所以“我认为从现在开始我们就应该非常耐心并渐进行事才是明智之举。”并无投票权的费城联储主席兼帕特里克·哈克(Patrick Harker)上周在华尔街日报的采访中表示:“我们并没有看到最近的数据表明通胀正在快速地超越我们的目标。所以我认为我们有时间让这种情况顺势发展下去。”他还表示,“目前我不相信12月的利率变动是正确的举动,但我需要在未来的几周时间里对数据进行观察”。并无投票权的明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里(Neel Kashkari)表示,“我没有看到美国经济过热的迹象,所以我认为我们不需要先发制人般地提高利率”,而且“我担心的一个问题是,如果我们先发制人般地提高利率,而事实上并没有必要,那么我们就有可能成为结束大幅度发展并引发经济衰退的原因”。

2019年1月,美联储董事会将有人员变动,詹姆斯·布拉德(James Bullard )(圣路易斯联邦储备银行总裁)、查尔斯·埃文斯(Charles Evans)(芝加哥联储主席)、埃斯·特乔治( Esther George)(堪萨斯联储主席)和埃里克·罗森格伦(Eric Rosengren)(波士顿联储主席)将轮值担任美联储地区主席的职务。因此,我们将密切关注他们对年终和12月份美国联邦公开市场委员会更新的“点阵图”的评论。

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