每日新闻更新 — 意大利是不是发现自己没有几个朋友?The Daily Update – Is Italy finding it has few friends?

本周早些时候,意大利政府坚持其强硬的立场,宣布不愿意就其将明年的赤字目标定在国内生产总值(GDP)的2.4%一事进行谈判,尽管他们确实表明可以把预算中的某些方面拿出来讨论。意大利政府是在欧盟委员会正式拒绝意大利2019年预算提案之后发布这一立场的;欧盟认为借款和支出计划可能引爆另一场债务危机的火花,而欧盟似乎并没有为此做好准备。

意大利总理马泰奥·萨尔维尼(Matteo Salvini)在一份带有蔑视口吻的声明中表示,“我们始终愿意进行对话,我们可以谈论投资,但不会讨论2.4%的赤字以及对福涅罗(Fornero)养老金法的改革”。公共养老金问题是今年早些时候竞选活动的主战场之一。两个反建制党派承诺要“取消”2011年的福涅罗的改革。这项法律规定,退休年龄每两年提高一次,到2019年将达到67岁。该措施预计将在10年内节省公共资金800亿欧元。目前,意大利的养老金支出约占其GDP的16%,而德国为10%(英国仅略高于6%),经合组织的平均比例为8.2%。目前平均退休年龄为62岁,远低于欧盟平均水平。

预算虽然确实包括了一些节省资金的措施,但非常强调支出这一方面;政府的联盟伙伴认为这些措施将刺激增长并最终减少意大利庞大且不可持续的债务与GDP的比率,目前的比例(乐观估计?)是130%。

现在对意大利目前的财务状况持消极看法的不仅仅是欧盟。昨天意大利向散户提供了自从今年年初那次发行失败之后首个与通胀挂钩的债券;当时意大利债券收益率触及3.7%的水平。意大利国内零售债券(BTP Italia)的发行在过去3天内才收到8.6亿多欧元的订单,这是自2012年首次推出以来的最低水平。此前,意大利确实设法在周二获得了价值55亿欧元的3年、7年和20年的政府资助,但非常勉强。2038年的发行量下降到1.4倍,上个月还是1.9倍。如果明年要是没有另外2500亿欧元的债务问题,情况就不会那么糟糕......其中40%将在10年或更长的时间内提供!

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