每日新闻更新 —意大利撞墙了 The Daily Update – Italy hits the wall

欧洲央行管理委员会成员埃瓦尔德·诺沃特尼(Ewald Nowotny)上周发出严厉警告说,意大利已经到了“太大以至于不能失灵”的边沿。诺沃特尼继续说,尽管意大利是欧盟的核心国家,但世界上没有任何东西因为“太大而不能失灵”,但如果有什么国家接近了这一点,那就是意大利。不过,您可以质疑说,也没有什么因为“太大而无法拯救”的。

欧洲央行越来越关注意大利局势的主要原因之一是,根据一些德高望重的前欧洲央行银行家的观点,欧盟并没有任何法律手段迫使意大利改变目前对其预算和随之而来的赤字的立场。欧洲央行前金融稳定主管维托尔·康斯坦西奥(Vitor Constancio)认为,欧盟与意大利政府之间日益冷淡的关系将异常难以处理,因为欧盟面对一个欧盟预算的净贡献国基本上无能为力。康斯坦西奥认为,只有当市场迫使债券发生危机时欧洲央行才能出手。他在布鲁塞尔的一次会议上说,“金融市场将对结果做出指令”,并正确地认为,“意大利无法赢得市场”。

到目前为止,罗马和布鲁塞尔之间的战斗中没有任何妥协的余地。欧盟警告说,“意大利的财政计划是基于难以置信的经济增长的假设作出的,对《稳定公约》的违反比人们担心的还要糟糕”。不出所料的是,罗马的大佬们并不这样看待这个问题 — 财政部长乔瓦尼·特里亚(Giovanni Tria)立即把委员会的分析视为“技术上的无能”。

法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)的主席洛伦佐·比尼斯马吉(Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi)一针见血地把此事比喻为就要发生撞车的事故 —“意大利正在开着车往墙上撞。这次冲撞会非常猛烈”。

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