每日新闻更新 — 非农就业数据 The Daily Update – Non-farm Payrolls

今天发布的10月份非农就业数据显示,尽管上个月的数字从13.4万下修到11.8万,减少1.6万,新增的就业岗位为25万,高于要创建20万个就业岗位的预期。失业率维持在3.7%,参与率从62.7%小幅升至62.9%。但是醒目的消息是,平均每小时收入同比增长了3.1%,这是自2009年以来最大幅度的年度增长(当年高达3.6%,但在紧接着三年的大部分时间里降到了2%以下)。工资的大幅上涨与预期一致。根据预期,10月份的数字将超过上个月的2.8%的同比增幅。

在撰写本文时,美国国债的交易量略微走弱,以回应击败数据数字的预期,并且似乎已稳定在3.17-3.18%的范围内。随着10年期美国国债收益率从3.14%上升至3.17%,以及特朗普关于贸易谈判的“进展顺利”和随之而来人们推测美中(贸易战)出现突破性进展使得股票应声反弹,美国国债已经在今天一大早失去了原来的一些增幅。在撰写本文时,标准普尔500指数已经丧失了今天早些时候的所有涨幅。这支持那种当最近几周市场出现两个方面的消息时市场对负面消息的反应要强于对正面消息的反应的说法。值得注意的是,关于非农就业数据的两个月平均数的标题为18.4万,这两个月均低于市场对它们的需求。

特朗普在周二的中期选举之前一直在不加掩饰地利用这一积极的经济方面消息。他的最新推文说,“哇!10月份尽管有飓风,美国的就业机会还是增加了25万个,失业率只有3.7%,工资也上涨了!这些数字简直令人难以相信。加油,把票投给共和党!”在“尽管有飓风”之后,人们可以加上“保护主义贸易政策”,这肯定已经对就业和工资数据产生了压力,并且将越来越多地转化为这种压力。对下周选举的这一提醒同时也提醒人们,由于近期共和党贸易政策的影响越来越明显,让我们拭目以待特朗普的“让美国再次伟大起来”的宏伟蓝图的第二部分将如何展开。

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