每日新闻更新 — 石油,抓住一把坠落的刀 The Daily Update – Oil, catch a falling knife

昨天油价持续暴跌,在某个阶段布伦特原油的价格下跌了6.41%,然后在不到1美元的区间有一个像“死猫蹬腿”一般的小幅反弹。虽然我们认为目前的价格充满了坏消息,尤其是谈到供应方面,但似乎人们对抓住这一把专业行话所说的“坠落的刀”几乎没什么兴趣。诚然,在供应的标题下(从伊朗进口石油的豁免权是一个关键因素),外加对2019年需求/供应状况的负面展望,熊市驱动因素的完美风暴继续迫使价格走低。

12月6日石油输出国组织会议的焦点是特朗普总统呼吁降低价格;同时该组织还表示沙特阿拉伯仍然是一个重要的安全合作伙伴,并且对他提出的将石油价格保持在“合理水平”的要求“给以了迅速的反馈”。这发生在皇太子参与杀害贾马尔·卡尔佐吉(Jamal Khashoggi)一案正在继续接受调查之际,并被视为对沙特阿拉伯的进一步施压:即使在原油价格下跌的情况下,你也要保持对原油的供应。

当然,美国的供应也是一个因素,其库存越来越高,事实上,从2017年的净进口量为每天377万桶到现在,美国的石油现在几乎可以自给自足。事实上,美国石油协会(API)报告称,自9月中旬以来,昨天美国原油库存首次出现每周一次的提取,预计该周将提取155万桶,而预计与此同时的库存量的增加将为345万桶。

当然,在油价下跌的情况下既有赢家也有输家;作为巨大的出口商的俄罗斯肯定会感受到压力,但众所周知,他们有能力利用卢布来降低生产成本。到目前为止,最大的赢家是印度,一个巨大的石油进口国。人们普遍认为,10美元的原油价格下跌相当于对印度的经常账户产生相当于 GDP 的0.4%的影响。

当然目前的油价仍然还要远远高于2016年的低点;尽管昨天的交易已经到了今年的低点,但仍然高于大多数生产商仍然有利可图的50美元的生理水平。

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