每日新闻更新 — 增长放缓,风险上升 The Daily Update – Slowing growth & rising risks

伴随着风险和不确定性的增加,经济增长也在放缓。这是欧盟委员会2018年秋季对经济的预测和国际货币基金组织对欧洲区域的经济展望的共同主题。两者都在期待欧元区增长率的减速:国际货币基金组织预测2018年增长率为2%,2019年增长率将降至1.9%,2020年增长率将降至1.7%。欧洲委员会对欧元区2018年增长显得略微乐观一些 — 2.1%,但预测2019年和2020年的增长率也将分别下降至1.9%和1.7%。

国际货币基金组织指出,“由于全球的需求放缓,贸易紧张局势加剧以及能源价格上涨,外部环境的支持力度已经下降,预计2019年将进一步走软。脆弱的新兴市场经济体的更加紧缩的金融环境和日益成熟的商业周期也对经济活动造成压力。”他们还提到对财政调整的拖延以及伴随人口挑战的结构改革等因素带来的风险,并警告说,“无协议脱欧”将对经济增长产生负面影响。

欧盟委员会还指出风险和不确定性因素给发展前景蒙上了阴影:“在顺周期财政刺激措施的推动下,美国的经济过热可能导致利率上升的速度超过预期。这将对美国以外的国家产生许多负面溢出效应,特别是在易受资本流动变化影响并难以掩盖以美元计价的债务的新兴市场中。这可能会加剧金融市场的紧张局势。鉴于欧盟(跟他们之间有着)强大的贸易联系和银行风险敞口,欧盟也可能遭受损失。”其他风险包括英国的脱欧,美国和中国之间紧张的贸易局势以及对负债累累的成员国的公共财政的担忧都可能会对经济活动造成压力。

英国的增长数据也令人关注:根据对英国和欧盟27国之间的贸易关系现状的假设,欧盟预测(英国)今年的增长率为1.3%,在2019年和2020年将降至1.2%。国际货币基金组织也预计,今年英国的经济增长将放缓至1.4%,但随后在2019年和2020年将微升至1.5%。根据今日公布的数据,英国2018年第三季度的国内生产总值显示季度增长率从第二季度的0.4%上升至0.6%,是自2016年第四季度以来最强劲的季度增长数字。但是,它也指出了放缓一事:受炎热天气和世界杯的推动,7月份的发展表现强劲,但8月和9月的增长却停滞不前。商业投资连续第三个季度下滑。

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