每日新闻更新 — 特朗普、贸易、麻烦 The Daily Update – Trump, trade, trouble

特朗普总统已经警告说,如果他没有得到他认为需要从中国获得的让步,接下来会征收进一步的关税。鉴于两国领导人预定在11月份在布宜诺斯艾利斯G20会议上见面以及在1月1日将对另外的2000亿美元的进口商品实施10%到25%的关税,他的最新威胁的时机是有点令人惊讶。

据报道,美国正在准备,假如谈判不能达成协议则将对进一步的2570亿美元的进口商品征收关税。这些进一步的惩罚性措施可能正赶上二月初中国的农历新年。特朗普昨天在接受采访时表示,“我认为我们将跟中国达成了不起的协议,这个协议必须是了不起的,因为他们已经榨干了我们的国家”。周末在印第安纳州举行的一场活动中在谈到正在进行的贸易战 的时候,他补充说“但我们会赢”,“你们知道为什么吗?因为我们总能赢。”

很难看出谁能从一场旷日持久的贸易战中获胜,因为在我们看来,人们只能从经济活动有可能承受打击的情况中看到是否有输家。

定期的读者会知道我们的投资流程和我们的净外国资产评分系统。该系统根据整个资产负债表对各国进行排名。这包括家庭和企业的情况,而不仅仅是政府的资产负债表,并将评分作为 GDP 的百分比来表示。从这个角度来看,美国是一个正在走下坡路的国家,英国也是如此,这两个国家的政府资产负债表都是我们关注的要点。贸易摩擦的持续肯定无助于缓解这个压力,我们对美国的预测是,在未来几年该国为两星级国家,这将有可能使其低于我们目前的最低要求:三星评级。

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