每日新闻更新 — 小心从地平线上升起的云!The Daily Update – Beware the clouds on the horizon!!

国际货币基金组织(IMF)的首席经济学家将从职位上退休,在之前对他进行的最后几次的一次采访中,他说美国可能会在未来一两年的时间里开始感受到经济发展急剧放缓的影响,但他并不相信这将导致经济衰退。莫里斯·奥布斯特费尔德(Maurice Obstfeld)博士在接受英国《金融时报》和《华尔街日报》采访时表示,“我们长期以来一直预测2019年美国的经济增长将比我们今年看到的要低一些”;他接着说,“根据我们看到的数据,2020年经济放缓很可能会比2019年还要剧烈”。这这个警告发布之前,国际货币基金组织已将美国经济增长的预测从今年的2.8%下调至2019年的2.5%。

奥布斯特费尔德博士认为,今年第三季度的数据令人失望,未来几个季度美国将面临的主要不利因素将来自欧洲和亚洲经济体,而它们最终将开始拖累美国。正如奥布斯特费尔德博士所说:“对于世界其他地方来说,似乎有一些空气正从气球中流出,而且我认为,它终将会影响到美国”。

这位首席经济学家谈到的另一个领域是关于中国;他说,在短短几年内的时间里中国超过美国成为世界最大经济体的可能性很大。国际货币基金组织估计,去年中国的经济规模是美国经济的62%,但未来5年中国的经济规模将增长到美国经济的79%。他说,“这是一个代数问题,如果中国继续以接近目前的速度增长发展,如果美国继续以接近目前的速度增长,我们不难算出中国需要多少年就可以达到美国的经济规模。”不过,他确实发出了一个严峻的警告,即两国都有责任“应对”中国的增长。他说:“面对这种局面,双方不要以冲突的方式来应对是至关重要的,因为那样做将破坏全球整个经济的稳定”;他补充说,“努力将中国引入各国同意的全球框架之内是非常重要的。在这个框架中,中国要改变一些贸易做法,并且还要对它的一些合法的经济目标予以某种程度的调整”。

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