每日新闻更新 — 对脱欧“世界末日”的警告 The Daily Update – Brexit ‘Doomsday’ Warning

时时刻刻都爱警告说英国的脱欧就像一次潜在的列车事故的英国央行行长马克•卡尼(Mark Carney)昨日对英国在无协议条件下脱欧可能对英国经济造成的后果又做出了最可怕的预测。在英国央行对“最坏情况”的分析中,一种无序的英国脱欧将使英国在未来5年内损失其国民收入的近11%,失业率将提高几乎一倍至7.5%,并导致房价崩溃近三分之一(商业地产价格可能会更差,接近50%),英镑将遭受贬值至25%的范围之内。这些数字虽然令人吃惊,但距离当天早些时候公布的政府自己的分析并不太远;根据政府发布的分析,假如英国硬脱欧的话,英国的经济将在未来15年内萎缩10.5%。如果这个最糟糕的情况变成现实,那将是自第二次世界大战以来最大程度的衰退。

世界末日警告的一个主要原因在于,根据英国央行的说法,没有一个主要的发达经济体发生过这样一个断崖式的从一个像英国跟欧盟之间那么“深奥且复杂”的贸易协议中撤出得一干二净的先例。企业界被强调为“尚未做好充分准备可以应对”无协议条件脱欧情况发生的一个领域。其中一个最令人担忧的方面是卡尼的这番警告:无论何种最糟糕的情况发生,英国央行基本上爱莫能助。“没有什么货币政策能够抵消英国脱欧有可能给生产力和供应带来的沉重打击... ... 这种经济的未来潜力及其对就业、实际工资和财富的影响并不在中央银行家的礼包中”。

正如你所想象的,当谈到英国在欧盟以外的未来前景时,并非所有人都同意卡尼和英国央行的观点。向来不会路过麦克风而不对着它说几句的雅各·里斯-莫格(Jacob Rees-Mogg)指责卡尼在发出警告后破坏了英格兰银行的“独立性和可信度”。媒体援引他的话说,“这是‘歇斯底里项目’。在公投前,我们曾受到‘青蛙瘟疫’的威胁。现在他们又警告说,‘第一个出生的人会死亡’。英格兰银行已经从不怕丢脸变得歇斯底里”。他接下来又说:“我认为这件事让行长大人颜面扫地 — 他基本上就是一个失败的二流的加拿大政治家,他的言语告诉我们,他完全把英镑给看扁了,我觉得这是史无前例的”。

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