每日新闻更新 — 数据和哑剧 The Daily Update – Data and Panto

在美联储下周会议召开前的静默期期间,美联储最后两位发言人中,一位是没有选举权的布拉德(Bullard),另外一位是有选举权的布雷纳德(Brainard)理事。布拉德是一位一直在呼吁对加息予以限制的鸽派人物;他认为“反转收益率曲线以试图对通货膨胀采取先发制人的措施是没有意义的”。布雷纳德指出,“对美国经济前景有利的一些因素正在逐渐消退”,同时也警示大家,劳动力市场依然强劲。

最近美联储发言人提出的有趣观点反映出立场的明显转变 — 从让利率沿着预先设计好的轨迹前进转向对数据的更加依赖。市场在看到对近期数据发布的反应的同时似乎也改变了立场。在过去的两年中,数据需要下行到令人大吃一惊的地步才能逼迫逐步紧缩周期的政策暂停,但现在似乎数据需要跑赢大盘才能使市场相信美联储将继续推进继而超出对中性的估计。尽管下周加息的可能性还是很高的(概率为70.6%),但对于年末的美联储的所谓加息“点图”的市场分析来讲,这是一个重大的变化。

这就像是在石油输出国组织(OPEC)会议上的一场哑剧一样,一会儿是“哦,是的,他们会的;哦,不,他们不会的”的猜测,一会又是“他们就在你身后”的大喊大叫。然而,会议在最后一刻达成了一项协议,其削减的幅度大于市场的预期。该协议规定的削减产量的总数为每天120万桶,欧佩克成员国为80万桶/天,包括俄罗斯在内的非欧佩克成员国为40万桶/天。市场原来担心特朗普总统对沙特阿拉伯施加的让价格进一步下跌的无情压力可能要导致会议以无协议而告终,但当会议落下帷幕时,油价每桶飞涨了4美元。

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