欧洲央行:“保持信心,更加谨慎” The Daily Update - ECB: 'continuing confidence with increasing caution'

在全球经济增长势头放缓的迹象下,美联储强调采取更加灵活的收紧政策的措施。虽然欧洲央行只是希望开始减少刺激措施,但在欧元区经济增长放缓的情况下,欧洲央行面临着减少调节的微妙平衡行动,因此看起来已经采取类似的行动了。对此德拉吉(Draghi)予以承认,还表示风险是讨论的焦点,他将评估总结为“保持信心,更加谨慎”。

正如预期的那样,欧洲央行维持其主要利率不变,并继续“期望利率至少在2019年夏天要保持在目前的水平不变”。欧洲央行还确认了在12月底结束净债券购买的打算,而欧盟引领市场朝这个方向发展已经有一段时间了。然而,他们保持了一定的灵活性,因为他们打算在我们开始提高关键欧洲央行利率的日期之后,通过将到期债券的收益再投资的方法来将资产负债表规模控制在2.6万亿欧元,而且无论如何只要有必要就要保持良好的流动性条件和充足的货币宽松程度。”此外,德拉吉在新闻发布会上指出,接下来“量化宽松货币政策是我们要采取的措施的一部分”。

这番话其实强调了一些经济指标的减弱,援引的根据是除了数据和调查结果都显得较弱之外,欧元区在第三季度实际GDP季度环比增长0.2%,而前两个季度环比增长0.4%;德拉吉承认“这可能预示着未来的增长要放缓。”事实上,他们下调了自己的增长预测,预计2019年GDP增长率为1.7%,并在2020年保持1.7%的增长率。就增长前景而言,欧洲央行将风险评估为“大致平衡”,但同时也承认,“由于地缘政治因素、保护主义的威胁、新兴市场的脆弱性,以及金融市场的波动等不确定性持续存在,风险平衡正在成为消极因素。”欧洲央行在将2018年消费者物价调和指数(HICP)通胀预期微调至1.8%的同时,却将2019年的预测下调至1.6%,并将2020年维持在1.7%不变。

正如我们之前所说的那样,我们更倾向于选择来自债权国的精选高等级以美元计价的欧洲债券。如果增长的环境减弱,美国国债的价格曲线已经反映出更多的收紧政策,利率和收益率下降的空间更大:10年期美国国债的实际收益率略高于1%,而10年期德国国债的收益率实际收益率大约为负1.5%。在发展放缓的情况下,以及如果信贷息差承受压力,我们期待较高等级的债券表现得会更好一些;如果这种情况最终真的发生的话,这就给了我们沿着信贷曲线进行投资的机会。

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