每日新闻更新 — 灵活的美联储 The Daily Update – Flexible Fed

11月份的联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要强调,“货币政策不是预设的路线”,它应该“以传入的数据为指导”,并强调“渐进的方法”仍然适用。12月份联邦基金目标范围再次上调25个基点看起来仍然非常有可能,因为“几乎所有与会者都认为,在假设工作和通胀数据并没有重大变化的条件下,联邦基金利率目标范围的另一次增长可能很快得到保证”。

一种“灵活的方法”似乎是当天的选择,许多与会者注意到声明使用的语言可能需要进行修改以强调这一点和“对传入数据的评估”。重要的是,“一些与会者虽然认为联邦基金利率目标范围的进一步的逐步增加可能是合适的,但无法确定这次加息的时间。一些与会者指出,联邦基金利率目前可能接近其中性水平”。 事实上,本周早些时候杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)在纽约经济俱乐部的讲话让人感觉到他在加息问题上的态度要比他在10月份的评论更加谨慎;他在这次讲话中指出,目前的利率“仍然低于预期的对于经济来说为中性的水平”;他承认经济仍然将感受到之前紧缩政策的全部影响,因此他们“将密切关注传入的经济和金融数据所告诉我们的信息”。

如果美联储在12月份将利率提高25个基点,那么联邦基金的目标范围将达到2.25-2.5%,这将触及9月预测的中性估计范围(2.5-3.5%)的底部。除此之外,美联储继续对其资产负债表进行收缩,增长势头正在减弱(最明显的是住房和汽车行业):会议纪要警示“经济领域对利率敏感的部门出现放缓的迹象”以及由于财政和贸易政策出现了不确定性。因此,我们预计关于(美联储)是否需要很快暂停紧缩的一场辩论将会进行下去,我们将关注联邦公开市场委员会对12月预测进行的修订。

这个月美国国债收益率曲线趋于平缓,就在撰稿时,10年期美国国债收益率为3.02%。全球增长势头继续减弱,贸易紧张局势仍然是持续增加的风险,因此敬请投资者关注特朗普总统和习近平主席在本周末G20会议上是否能够制定出一条建设性的路线。

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