每日新闻更新 — 非农业数据和美联储 The Daily Update – Non Farm and the Fed

今晚午夜,美联储的数据在12月18日/19日会议之前进入静默期。有趣的是,在这次会议上决定加息的概率昨天降至70%以下,然而就在三周前,市场对这次加息预测的概率还高达95%。美联储理事(Lael Brainard)是美联储今晚在静默期在华盛顿发表数据之前的最后一位指定的发言人。

昨天我们从美联储亚特兰大主席博斯蒂克(Bostic)(董事会的投票成员)那里听到了他的观点;他认为美联储应该采取更加中性的立场。他指出,他没有看到“明显过热的迹象”,也没有看到“目前有宏观经济数据出现实质性减弱的迹象”。我们还听到了美联储达拉斯主席罗伯特·卡普兰(Robert Kaplan)的意见。他到2020年才能成为董事会的投票成员,但是在业内德高望重。明年美联储步入增长缓慢期而且基本上没有证据表明通胀就要快速发展。在这样一个背景下,他建议要保持耐心。他进一步评论说,他以前“对我们应该沿着加息的道路走下去充满了信心,但这会儿您会更多地听到我说,一定要多加谨慎”。从整体上看,他的评论偏离了那种按照预先制定好的政策行事的方法,而更多地偏重于依据数据来行事。

言归正传,今天11月份非常重要的非农就业数据公布,市场本来希望从媒体的头条看到的数字是19.8万,但实际公布的数字则是15.5万,对之前下降的1.2万的数据进行了两个月的净修订。失业率稳定在3.7%,平均每小时收入为0.2%,这个月的这些数据使得同比增长率低于预期的3.1%,是近期收益率曲线下降的支撑因素。

从广义上讲,这份报告要弱于市场预期,但该报告不会让梅塞尔的卡普兰(Messer’s Kaplan)和公司清楚地了解未来经济发展的轨迹。在收益率下跌一周之后,债券市场几乎没有变化;现在所有的目光都集中在股市上,期货合约开盘时显示出小幅下跌。

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