每日新闻更新 — 红色是本季度的颜色 The Daily Update – Red is colour for the season

昨天美国股市跌至14个月以来的低点,日本东证指数现在也处于18个月以来的低位。此外,美国小盘股成为最近进入科技熊市领域的行业,和其他股市一起加入到深陷泥潭的德国DAX指数的困境中来。标准普尔500指数上周已经把年初至今的回报回吐得一干二净,昨日的跌幅到达了2%;今天全球市场也趋于进一步下跌;越来越肯定的是,2018年一开始呈现出蓬勃发展的势头,然而在年终全球绝大多数股票和债券指数却迎来了一片红色汪洋。

几个月以来,外界对今天和明天的美联储会议的预计是光打雷不下雨,但现在隐含的可能性表明,至少有四分之一的机会加息将被推迟。此外,随着近期市场波动的进一步升级,有一系列文章暗示明天如果仅仅采用加息的方式可能不足以平息市场的情绪。投资者原以为伴随最后一次系统性加息的当是一种鸽派的声音;但只有时间才能证明他们是否已经考虑到开始逐渐转向对(加息)路径的不确定性进行评估的因素,而伴随的声音多半是极具劝诫性的。

与此同时,由于对大多数主要市场通货紧缩的担忧不断加剧,英国最近几天的通胀掉期在显著增加。自从公投结果出来之后,英国的股市就跌了下去,但全球的股市也跌了下去;英镑贬值了,但程度还算温和。由于近几个月全球增长关键指标已经出现警示,美国和欧元区的3年期现货通胀掉期出现了大幅下滑(美国从2.3%下降至1.8%)。然而,这是跟英国本季度通胀掉期从约3.3%上升至3.7%的情况相比较得出来的结果。美国和英国掉期利差从4月份的0.9%上升到现在的1.9%,若与今年早些时候的低点相比较,翻了一倍还多。这一比例的飙升来自对英国较高的通胀预期以及较高的通胀风险溢价:人们不期待通胀继续上升,但鉴于人们对英国脱欧和英镑贬值忧心忡忡要把更高的极端风险考虑进去... ...这是一种方式,但绝对不是应对通缩担心的最轻松的方式。

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