每日新闻更新-美联储会议纪要预期 The Daily Update – Fed minutes expectations

今晚美联储会议纪要公布,美国国债收益曲线的远端先于此形成:10年期收益率约为2.88%,回落至上周末水平,1月份通胀数据公布后曾出现过略高于预期的峰值2.94%。但短期收益继续走高:2年期收益率触及2.28%,这几乎是12个月前收益率的两倍,达到了9.5年以来的峰值。相比之下,30年期收益率在12个月内增长了10点,从3.04%增长至3.14%。

如果今晚美联储会议纪要对通胀数据采用长期谨慎的观点,对美国经济发展前景出现明显的分歧,那么可以看作是对近期加息宣传的加强。市场预期今年出现4次以上加息的可能为23%,出现2次或3次加息的可能为32%-36%,三月份加息将成为唯一的一次加息的可能为9%。也许更关键的是根据最近的税改方案对经济发展和通胀前景展开的讨论。美联储的会议纪要既能扰乱市场也能起到安抚效果。但如果会议纪要显示美联储很期待通胀继续走高,这将有益于债券市场:一月份美联储发表政策声明预期今年通胀水平将增加,已考虑进一步缩表,对此市场纷纷抛售。然而,该会议纪要将不会就最近在FOMC会议之后出现的市场波动做任何评论。

今天我们评估发现在过去五个紧缩周期中美国长期国债的表现优于短期,这是因为高利率抑制了通胀和经济发展的自然效应。长期点阵图显示联邦基金目标利率值保持2.75%,预测显示不太可能有足够的变化空间让国债曲线的远端超过最近的峰值。全球经济发展和通胀已经提振,我们会继续密切关注这些指标以及我们的模型预测,但我们仍看到很多因素会进一步限制有益面。不管怎样,我们仍预期美联储相关的波动将高于平常:先消化这些会议纪要,接着是下周美联储主席哲罗姆·鲍威尔向国会提交的证词。

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