每日新闻更新-科威特 The Daily Update – Kuwait

最近,标普确认科威特长期外汇评级为AA级(稳定展望),指出“科威特庞大的政府和外部净资产将继续支持当局逐步稳固政府财务”。惠誉在一月底也因其“持续的财政和外部势力”给科威特AA(稳定)的评级,尽管“财政改革和经济多元化步伐缓慢增加了国家财政长期风险”。但惠誉预测科威特的主权净外部资产是GDP的500%,据此我们认为科威特还有时间做出必要的调整。

很显然,油价环境得到改善具有积极效果,特别是考虑到科威特的预算已快要抵消保守油价。最近科威特通过了2019财年的预算,预计赤字为65亿科威特币。惠誉指出“2018财年预算假定油价为45美元/桶,而今年截至目前科威特出口石油价格平均为51.7美元。”另外,科威特2019财年的预算假定油价为50美元/桶。考虑到这些假定,实际结果很可能会更好。

财政部长Nayef al-Hajraf指出,2018/19年度预算将出自一般储备基金的取款以及债券发行。重要的是,标普指出,“科威特中央政府赤字说明了该政府的融资要求。我们考虑了所有潜在的收入和储蓄来源,包括科威特投资局的投资收入以及每年必须转入科威特投资局未来基金的中央政府总收入的10%。”因此,2018财年的预测说明科威特的财政状况约为GDP的8%,中央政府的赤字约为GDP的16%。

科威特2027年到期、票息为3.5%、收益率为3.7%的债券拥有3.8档信用缓冲,根据我们的评估模型,这属于很有吸引力的债券。

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