每日新闻更新-墨西哥 The Daily Update – Mexico

墨西哥政府石油业自由化项目继续进行中,在一月份最近一次拍卖中成功卖掉19个深水区块。壳牌公司是重要的竞标者。由政府100%所有的墨西哥主要石油市场商Pemex竞得4个区块。政府将从这些区块竞标中获得5.35亿美元,墨西哥官员预测这将带来930亿美元的投资,这将无可置疑地为墨西哥主权信用产生积极影响。石油业亟需增加投资来振兴疲软的生产:政府预测数据显示到2032年石油区块每天可产出150万桶,这将弥补自然递减率,并提高总产量。

有趣的是,2018年7月将举行总统大选,此次拍卖却获得如此积极的反应,正如穆迪指出的:“本次拍卖结果说明外国石油企业相信如果新组政府进行合同审查,墨西哥法律框架将对投资起到保护作用。”极左候选人奥夫拉多尔(AMLO)在民意测试中遥遥领先,他说如果自己当选总统,将对这些石油合同进行审查。

然而,要对能源改革做出重大改变,AMLO需要众议院和参议院多数通过,修订宪法分别需要两院三分之二的票数通过。目前看来,要做到这一点,AMLO的复兴运动党不太可能获得足够多的支持票。AMLO也曾提发起能源改革公投,但在2014年最高法院驳回了该党要求就此进行公投的提案。这意味着,目前来看更务实的做法是在竞选中脱颖而出,并提出审查改革,看其是否达到目标,同时也尊重现有合约的合法性。

在我们看来,最近的市场波动形成了机遇。墨西哥2040年到期、票息为6.05%的债券交易价格比其评级低3.4档。Pemex于2035年到期、票息为6.625%的债券按6.36%的收益率进行交易,根据我们的模型,其交易价格比其评级低5档。

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