每日新闻更新-墨西哥/英格兰银行 The Daily Update – Mexico UK BoE

我们在持续关注墨西哥政治局势,大选将于今年7月1日举行,现在仍处于早期,可能朝多个方向发展。总的来说,竞选尚未正式开始,当前执政党PRI也没有正式确认其候选人,但普遍认为将是财长米德。现在关键问题是米德是否会与选民建立联系并获得支持。毫无疑问,他非常符合总统这一职位,公众也认为他很诚实,这很重要,因为腐败和暴力是选民关心的关键问题。民主革命党左翼候选人奥夫拉多尔曾参加过总统竞选,实际上,这是第三次参加,他是非常优秀的演讲者,目前支持率遥遥领先。国家行动党候选人里卡多·安纳亚的支持率目前也领先米德。国家行动党、民主革命党和公民运动党组成“墨西哥前进”竞选联盟,我们认为这很“特朗普”。

如果米德获胜,将对市场产生积极影响,因为那将意味着目前政策不会有重大改变。而民主革命党候选人奥夫拉多尔则代表更多政策上的未知,例如能源私有化。他一直支持开放能源领域,赞同实现能源私有化。当然,北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)是所有政党都要面临的问题,但就目前来看,我们不清楚能否在大选之前就NAFTA达成一致,大选可能会缓解协议产生的风险。

我们持有的墨西哥主权债券和准主权债券表现不错,市场一直很有弹性,信用缓冲较大,收益水平令人满意。我们将继续关注墨西哥的政治形势。

英格兰银行行长卡尼发表评论称他及同行现在更保守。应对通货膨胀的政策制定者现在已经看到英镑和物价正呈正相关关系。大体来讲,通胀预期和英镑朝同一方向发展说明市场受基本面的驱动。但作为过去英国经济最主要驱动力的住房市场又如何了呢?昨天的一份报告显示,目前只有三分之一的家庭按揭贷款,定息按揭的比例已经上升至60%,大约五分之一的抵押人几乎没有预料到加息,债务平均水平相较于收入已经下降,过去十年的储蓄率的增长快于收入增长率。因此,英格兰银行进一步收紧住房现金流所产生的影响可能不如过去明显。

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