每日新闻更新-美联储新任主席上任=股市卖空 The Daily Update – New Fed Chair = Stock market sell-off

昨天是新任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上任的第一天,但美国股市却发生暴跌,这个开头并不顺利。在本文发布时,全球股市处于暴跌状态,期货也出现抛售,并出现了新一轮金融危机的言论。

虽然股市暴跌跟鲍威尔头天上任发生在同一天实属偶然,但类似的事情在过去也时有发生:耶伦上任的第一天,标普500指数下跌0.9%;伯南克头一天上任,股指就下跌2.2%;格林斯潘宣誓就职后的两个月内,股市抛售约35%。

我们之前提过,鲍威尔似乎会延续耶伦的“渐序性”加息措施,昨天他强调美联储计划逐步退出的计划。根据已公布的数据,工资同比增长率远高于预期,这很可能导致通胀水平提高,而市场将预期加息节奏加快,鲍威尔将如何应对这样的局面,我们将拭目以待。但美国劳动力市场保持强劲已有一段时间,并接近充分就业,我们尚未看到工资上涨的重大压力。截至本文发稿,彭博社预期三月份加息的几率为83.5%,期货市场预期今年将有2.5-3次加息。

同时,全球债券市场普遍反弹。就投资组合在本月截至目前的表现而言,一些去年表现不错的大宗商品债券,例如智利国有铜企Codelo,面临一些压力。同时,评级较高的中国准主权债券弹性较大,实际上这些债券在市场波动期间一直表现不错。在此紧要关头,我们不会调整投资战略,因为我们A3级投资组合平均拥有超过三档信用缓冲。

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