每日新闻更新-西方暂没有新的对俄制裁 The Daily Update – No new western sanctions for Russia

昨天是美国财政部公布“克里姆林宫报告”的最后截止日期,也是汇报潜在新对俄制裁所可能产生的影响的最后一天。根据客观性原则,报告中共涉及96位俄国寡头政治和114位政治人物。多少令人惊讶的是,特朗普政府宣布不会对这些人进行任何制裁,尽管有控告认为他们干涉2016年美国大选。然而,美国国务院强调说,当前法律以及“制裁威胁”就已经具有威慑作用,而且俄国国防部的国外采购已大幅削减,因此不需要执行新的制裁。

上周,穆迪上调了俄国的长期评级展望,说明该评级机构有望将俄国的评级调至投资级别。在评级报告中,穆迪认为俄罗斯的制度性优势增加,经济和财政弹性提高,这降低了俄国受地缘政治紧张局势以及油价动荡的影响。然而,目前俄国仍明显面临的挑战包括:投资不足导致的发展缓慢,以及国际制裁和持续地缘政治风险所产生的持久影响。

我们历来看好硬通货、准主权债券。我们目前持有俄罗斯天然气公司(Gazprom)于2034和2024年到期的债券、俄罗斯国有铁路2031年到期的债券、俄罗斯开发银行(VEB)于2023年和2025年到期的债券。我们所持债券的这些国有企业均对俄国政府具有战略意义,比地区信用以及俄罗斯主权债券更能有效应对制裁,它们在美国财政部报告公布之前就已经在承受压力。

这些债券也一直提供具有吸引力的风险调后回报。例如,俄国铁路公司(RZD)用英镑发行的于2031年到期、票息为7.487%的债券,较英国国债的价差是300点,比评级相似、久期为8.8年的债券的价差高约150点。因此该债券的预期回报率超过13%,收益率为4.7%,有三档信用缓冲。我们将继续进行密切关注,并在所持债券接近公允价值时进行更替。目前,我们对所持的俄国债券均比较满意,平均收益率为4.5%,信用缓冲也十分充足。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.