每日新闻更新-欧洲政治意志 The Daily Update – Political will in Europe

过去四个月德国经济表现疲软,同期政治也处于僵局,而昨天默克尔总理所在的保守党(CDU/CSU)同意同舒尔茨的社会民主党(SPD)组建“大联合政府”的条款,这可谓是几个月以来取得的一小步。但双方的很多成员仍然反对这次联合,这跟去年英国组建联合政府有类似之处。按照惯例,需要在3月4日之前由社会民主党的50万注册党员进行最终投票,如果投票结果反对这些条款,那么将为这个欧洲的政治和经济中心带来至少几个月的政治不确定性,并可能导致临时选举,并可能导致默克尔和舒尔茨失去已经不稳的政党基础。

如果您觉得2018年3月4日听上去像是很耳熟的政治日期,这是因为这天也是意大利的大选日——很可能也会产生悬浮议会。目前意大利领先的主要竞选人是Luigi Di Maio(格里洛领导的“五星运动”领头人)和贝卢斯科尼。贝卢斯科尼组建的右翼党领先“五星运动”和伦齐的中左派联盟10个百分点,但大约40%的选民仍然没有确定支持谁。而在我们看来,不管谁当选,都没有能力解决超过2.2万亿欧元的政府债务——相当于GDP的135%,或者每个意大利男人、女人和儿童摊派3.7万欧元。即使没有出现悬浮议会,也很有可能任何党派都无法完成所需的结构性改革。

我们看到,在欧洲国家内部实现政治共识仍然非常难,更不要说在整个欧盟达成政治共识,这也是欧洲金融市场面临的一大风险。像德国这样的稳定经济体保持着较低的失业率和较高的经济增速,但却始终没有政治力量或意志来领导该单一市场,而欧盟的小型成员国国内却出现越来越多的反体制运动。

如果要解决过去二十年产生的不平衡,统一的政治力量是必须的。虽然欧盟总体而言可能处于债权国的位置,但共同货币却造成了巨大的不平衡,并使其日益恶化。根据我们的监控分析,欧洲的36个经济体中有75%属于净债务国,其中50%的国外净债务超过GDP的50%——我们认为即使再小的收益变动或者经济疲软期都会出发不可持续的风险。为解决这些不平衡问题,欧洲已经付出了巨大的政治力量和关注,并投入了短期救助资金,设置了稳定机制。如果政治上一旦放松,那么很多这些人为稳定因素的维系和拓展力也会随之褪色。

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