每日新闻更新-卡塔尔 The Daily Update – Qatar

令人鼓舞的是,最近公布的数据显示卡塔尔的财政赤字有改善趋势。惠誉指出,卡塔尔中央银行初步预测到2017年9月底之前的9个月里,卡塔尔财政赤字为247亿卡塔尔里亚尔,为同期GDP的5.5%,比2016年全年9%的赤字水平有所改善。重要的是,卡塔尔央行的预测没有包含卡塔尔投资局的收入。惠誉预测由于油价大环境的改善,卡塔尔2017年财政赤字占GDP的比重将从2016年的5.1%降低为2.5%。我们预期卡塔尔在2018年的财政将继续得到改善:卡塔尔国家财政预算计划在2018年的赤字为281亿卡塔尔里亚尔(不包括卡塔尔投资局的收入),低于2017年的预算值284亿里亚尔,但这是假定保守油价为45美元/桶,因此实际结果可能更好。

卡塔尔的国外净资产雄厚,这让它能应对2014年以来的低油价环境以及2017年与沙特外交风波期间的资金外流产生的影响。标普预测2017年从卡塔尔各银行流出的非当地居民资金达220亿美元,但卡塔尔将430亿美元(约占GDP的26%)的公共部门(主要是卡塔尔投资局)资产调回本国,抵消了资金外流产生的问题。沙特与卡塔尔之间的外交关系一直紧张,但形势并没有恶化。穆迪、标普和惠誉对卡塔尔主权评级仍保持Aa3/AA-/AA-,这说明卡塔尔的资产实力,尽管所有评级机构给出的消极展望反应了该地区的地缘政治风险。

目前我们认为卡塔尔仍是很有吸引力的投资机遇。例如卡塔尔2040年到期、票息为6.4%(穆迪和惠誉的评级为Aa3/AA-)的债券收益率为4.77%,根据我们的模型,它拥有5档信用缓冲,这说明相当一部分风险已经被考虑在内了。

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