每日新闻更新-俄罗斯信用评级上调至投资级 The Daily Update – Russia’s upgrade to investment grade

标普和惠誉在周五修改了对俄罗斯的长期评级。惠誉确认了BBB-(积极展望),并维持了投资级(IG)。在2015年标普和穆迪均面临压力,将俄罗斯评级下调至BB+/Ba1。因此市场更关注标普修订后的评级结果。

随着俄罗斯合理的经济发展以及油价提高带来的更稳健的财政状况,有很高的预期认为标普会将俄罗斯的评级上调至投资级,特别是标普认为俄罗斯近期的发展展望为积极。因此,当标普宣布将俄罗斯的长期信用评级上调一档至信用级BBB-(稳定展望),形成了很大的震撼。惠普报告称,俄罗斯“坚持保守的宏观经济政策,这将让俄罗斯的外部和财政资产负债表保持强健,再加上浮动汇率,可缓冲由经济制裁和商品价格造成的震荡。”

因此,在大部分投资级债券指数中,俄罗斯债券都适合投资。如果看一下目前收紧的全球收益率,投资者无疑会持有抓住俄罗斯债券。实际上,今天上午10年期美国债券和当地基准债券收益率已经从周五的4.3%和7.3%分别下降至4.24%和6.93%。还需要注意的是,美国制裁没有涉及政府债券,而根据本月早些时候美国财政部的审评,在近期也不会。

我们最近没有投资俄罗斯的主权债券,因为我们更青睐货币准主权债券,后者对俄罗斯政府具有战略重要性,并在过去获得过政府的支持,比同类政府债券拥有更大的价差空间。例如,俄罗斯2030年到期、息票率为7.5%的主权债券,目前的交易价格比所在评级贵2.6档,同美国国债的价差是77点,按大约130点交易,低于类似债券。我们持有的俄罗斯债券都是过去几年在我们的投资组合中表现最好的债券之一。我们目前持有的俄罗斯国有天然气公司Gazprom的债券于2034年到期,息票率为8.625%,俄罗斯铁路公司RZD的债券(采用英镑发行)于2031年到期,息票率为7.487%。顺便提一句,穆迪在一月底将Gazprom和RZD的评级上调一档至Baa3,同惠誉的BBB-达成一致。虽然过去几周全球出现债券抛售,但这两支债券的持有率保持相对较好,并继续提供很有吸引力的风险调整回报率和收益率(~12%和18%),并分别提供~2和2.7档信用缓冲。

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