每日新闻更新-美国经济衰退警告 The Daily Update – US recession warnings

对冲基金桥水联合基金(Bridgewater Associates)董事长Ray Dalio在哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院发表演讲指出,未来两年内在唐纳德特朗普竞选连任之前,美国极有可能陷入经济衰退:“下届大选之前进入经济衰退的可能性很高,大约有70%的概率。”他承认目前美国经济正在发展,但由于多方面原因,一直存在的众多刺激因素会反过来加大加息风险,这会伤害所有资产价格。本月早些时候,Dalio在世界经济论坛发表演讲时指出:“利率只要有哪怕一点儿变化,就能造成熊市。最近经济和工资等方面的刺激措施说明周期进展地比我预想的要快。”

过去几周据媒体报道称桥水联合基金旗下的纯阿尔法基金已经累积了一些欧洲大型企业(如空中客车、西门子和联合利华)高达220亿美元的空仓。这些空头是核心仓位,还是对资金流的赌注,亦或是让他们整体不那么多头的对冲行为,都不得而知。

但认为未来24个月美国会出现经济衰退的不只桥水联合基金一家。在过去几个月利,金融服务集团古根海姆公司(Guggenheim Partners)已经预测美国的下一次经济衰退不是在2019年就是2020年。去年晚些时候的一份声明中,古根海姆投资工资全球CIO Scott Minerd表示:“提前预测经济衰退是非常困难的,但从历史来看,我们认为可能对下一轮经济衰退开始的时间出现过早解读,分析多个关键经济和市场指标的晚期表现。风险资产在经济衰退的前两年表现很好,但投资者应对最后一年的经济扩展保持强烈的警惕性。”

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