每日新闻更新-美国国债、美国经济和非农就业数据 The Daily Update – USTs, US economy and NFP

昨晚美国国债收益继续走高,2年期和10年期的价差从一月份的大约50点增长到62点。原因之一是美国在2018年第一季度推行的大手笔借贷计划。美国财政部去年第四季度已经发债2820亿美元,现在又发行了大约4410亿美元的债务。然而,第一季度庞大的再融资计划让财政部在三月底的现金头寸为2100亿美元,这导致第二季度的借债额仅有1760亿美元,到六月底的现金结余就只剩3600亿美元。因此,短期收益走高也是可以理解的。如果普遍认为美国经济会放缓,这些国债将被投资者吸收,但目前普遍共识却并非如此,大部分投资者对税改方案和通胀加速产生的影响都颇为担忧。

我们仍预期今年晚些时候经济会放缓,而由于会有两三次的加息,长期收益将更加扁平化、收益水平会更低。我们预期今年的短期通胀增长逐渐放缓,加息和美联储缩表的联合作用会减少对经济活动的潜在支持。

回顾美国1980年代的经济增长,连续92个月经济不断发展,GDP平均增长率为4.3%,1990年代达到了第120个月的扩张,GDP平均增长率为3.6%,在2000年代初期,经济增长连续73个月,GDP平均增长率为2.7%。目前经济已经是第104个月增长,GDP平均增长率为1.8%。同美国经济增长率下降保持一致的是,通胀压力下降、利率降低、美国人口状况以及影响未来经济增长的通胀水平。美国国债收益受供应影响而走高,这可能是非常好的买进机遇。

美国今天下午公布了非农就业数据,就业人数超过20万,大大高出普遍共识,但12月份的就业数据进行了修改,下调至1.2万多。失业率保持在4.1%,平均时薪环比增长0.3%,同比增长相当明显,为2.9%。总体而言,数据不错,但还不够,通胀指数正如我们所料,呈负值。美国国库债券仍受供应的困扰,截至发稿,其收益率比整个曲线高出2-3点。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.