每日新闻更新-相当鸽派的FOMC会议 The Daily Update – A Rather "Dovish" FOMC Meeting

正如市场预期,昨天美联储宣布联邦基金利率目标区间上调25个基点至1.50%-1.75%。昨天我们已经讨论过,这是鲍威尔首次以美联储主席身份主持美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议,市场非常关注他的观点,特别是鉴于最新公布的核心个人消费支出指数和核心消费价格指数并不令人满意。另外,其他关键数据点仍很复杂,零售销售、建筑许可数和个人消费支出都出乎意料地走低。亚特兰大联邦储备银行“GDPNOW”模型对美国第一季度年经济增长率的预估从2月1日的5.4%骤降至1.8%。

关于鲍威尔在会上发言的关键信息,他强调加强经济增长并对失业率进行了预测。根据最近的财政措施,预计今年经济增长率为2.7%,2019年为2.4%,2020年为2%。预计今年的失业率到年底将下降至3.8%,未来两年将下降至3.6%。然而,今年到2020年的通胀预期值只略微上调,分别为1.9%、2%和2.1%。有趣的是,美联储似乎对2020年的通胀预期很满意。上任主席耶伦以及芝加哥联储主席Evans之前发出的信号是,除非价格压力持续,否则美联储不会将目标通胀率停留在2%。

值得关注的是,鲍威尔延续上任政策,采用渐进式灵活方式实现利率正常化,他强调目前通胀几乎没有上升风险。鉴于新任主席更温和的态度,对今年中位数散点图没有改变,市场出现美元抛售,国债反弹。然而,对2019-2020年的发展展望更具鹰派风格。中国央行对货币市场利率上调了5个基点来应对此次加息,并表示此举是为了符合市场预期,是对美联储加息的正常反应。随着加息的进行以及市场更趋平衡,关注点将转移到发展全球贸易政策中。

我们对目前的位置仍很满意,特别是鉴于市场已经考虑了今年将有三次加息的预期。目前我们的A级投资组合收益率约为4.4%,信用缓冲超过三档。

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