每日新闻更新-智利 The Daily Update – Chile

智利新选总统皮涅拉(Sebastien Piñera)将于3月11日上任,而经济合作与发展组织(OECD)最近公布的一份关于智利的调查非常及时地指出了政策制定者需要考虑的一些潜在领域。

OECD很乐观地预测,由于铜价稳健以及全球经济复苏,智利在2018和2019年GDP增长率将从2017的1.7%增长到2.9%。同时强调指出智利需加强结构改革,提高生产力,实现经济多元化,提高全球竞争力,同时采取政策减少不平等。智利的生产力水平低于OECD平均值,其全球竞争力以及研发支出占GDP的比重也落后。OECD的这份报告支持减少官僚主义,精简管理,提高成人技能,让更多的劳力进入可产生实际价值的长期正式岗位之中,并指出提高对研发的公共支持以及加强基础设施投资,将促进创新,提高竞争力,智利也将从中受益。

然而,智利国会并不统一,皮涅拉的中右派联盟智利前进(Chile Vamos)在国会参众两院都没有占据大多数席位,因此推行政策改革可能不会一路坦途。虽然皮涅拉政府较为亲商,预期会产生投资复苏,但他可能不得不采取较柔和的方式来解决财政赤字和上升的债务水平。2017年财政赤字占GDP的比重从2016年的2.7%增长到2.8%。不管怎样,我们认为这是非常可控的水平,因为智力一般政府债务占GDP的比重约为25%(穆迪预测),利息负担较低,另外还有政府资产的加持。穆迪对智利主权债券的评级为Aa3(消极展望),认为智利比Aa级同类主权债券有优势,后者的政府债务占GDP的比重为30%。

智利国有铜生产商Codelco仍是我们青睐的四大智利债券之一。这支2036年到期、息票率为6.15%、美元发行的Codelco债券的收益率为4.5%,按照我们的评估模型,具有很大的吸引力,拥有约3.7档信用缓冲。

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