每日新闻更新-中国的全国人民代表大会/稳健防风险的经济 The Daily Update – China’s NPC – a strong, stable and de-risked economy

中国今年最大的政治活动——全国人民代表大会——于周一召开,一直持续到3月20日,约3000名代表参与立法讨论。李克强总理在开幕式上提出2018年的经济增长目标定在6.5%上下,同预期保持一致。除了强调可持续的优质增长,劳动力市场目标也是关键,李指出6.5%的增长率足以实现充分就业。

2018年的通胀目标仍保持在3%左右。另外,报告中关于中国央行谨慎中立的货币政策立场的评论也颇引人关注,取消了M2和社会融资目标。然而更重要的是,今年的财政政策仍保持积极;自2012年以来政府首次降低预算赤字占GDP的比重,从3%降为2.6%。防风险在日程表中的位置进一步提高。空军和海军国防也成为重点关注领域,预计今年国防支出将增长超过8%。未来几周将陆续公布以下相关新闻:习近平修宪,批准明年预算,到2020年建成更清洁环保的小康社会的相关细节,以及包括潜在房产税的财政和货币政策。

随着对贸易战的担忧,人民币兑美元下降,这是最明显的反应。还有一些观点认为中国会利用人民币提高其竞争力,或者作为贸易战争的弹药。然而,政策制定者一再强调他们希望市场对货币发挥更大的作用,并指出如果人民币波动性稳定并维持在可控范围内,他们不会进行干预。李克强还指出,人民币将大体保持稳定并在适当范围内波动。今年到目前为止,离岸人民币兑美元即期汇率增长2.75%。

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