每日新闻更新-人口与日本 The Daily Update – Demographics and Japan

Stratton Street的核心信念之一就是诸如人口这样的长期趋势正在限制经济增长率:下滑的经济发展一直与下滑的通胀压力以及低利率保持一致。这种趋势将始终保持下去。

日本经常被视为沿着这条道路走的最远的国家。Nao Sudo和Yasutaka Takizuk在2018年1月日本央行工作报告《过去和未来五十年的人口老龄化和实际利率》中展示了一些有趣的观察。该研究采用针对日本经济的叠代模型对过去和未来进行观察。

根据他们的基准模拟,他们发现日本在1960-2015年间,实际利率下跌的640点中有大约270点是因为人口结构的改变。有趣的是,该研究发现从2016年开始,人口结构只对实际利率产生了很小的影响。

Sudo 和Takizuka指出,未来人口产生的影响将变小:“在日本,过去50多年来,出生率从1960年代的4.6%下降到2015年的负值-0.7%,这导致同期适龄工作人口增长率从2.0%下跌到负值-1.4%。未来50年,出生率将下降到0.5%,这让适龄工作人口增长率几乎保持不变。类似的,过去50年的寿命增长了12年,但未来50年的寿命将只增长4年。”不管怎样,他们仍预期过去的人口变化将对实际利率造成下行压力:寿命增加是永久性的改变,这对家庭储蓄行为造成永久性影响,也对实际利率造成持续的消极影响。

人口趋势对资产市场具有重要影响。根据联合国数据,2015-2050年全球将有48个国家/地区的人口总数(不只是适龄工作人口)预期将减少。对我们而言,这意味着经济增长和通胀展望将变疲软,实际利率将降低。

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