每日新闻更新-美联储加息路径 The Daily Update – Fed rate path and destination

哲罗姆·鲍威尔担任美联储主席以来首次参加议息会议。鉴于利率十有八九将升至1.5%-1.75%,几乎所有人都在期待鲍威尔将如何评论刺激政策对紧俏的劳力市场的影响、通胀问题以及美联储将在其上任早期采取谨慎的一些迹象。目前有隐性迹象显示,40%的预期认为今年将有3次加息四分之一个百分点,剩下的60%认为会加息3次以上或者不足3次。

市场等待美联储的结果,全球股市继续走低,债市收益略有走高:10年期债券收益率回到本月徘徊的2.8%-2.9%区间的顶端,但不管利率正常化采取何种方式,不管今年加息4次、3次还是2次,短期投机对长期联邦基金目标利率的影响很小。最终,长期债券收益很可能维持在上区间,过去三年间30年期债券的收益率多次超过3.25%。

密切关注长期利率预测的演变以及市场对预测的反应,将是未来数月重点监控的方面。二月份美国就业数据乐观,很可能美联储的长期目标利率从目标的2.75%调至3%。在过去4年,该目标利率从4%一直在稳步下调。我们预测市场对这种渐进式回落的反应不足,这有效说明对美国的通胀和经济发展的平衡水平预期降低。除非该趋势骤然扭转,否则我们仍认为短期加快缩表对短期的影响应大于长期。

最后,由于今天是世界诗歌日,我们就用@twitmericks的五行打油诗结尾吧:

有个老兄叫普京,

英国对他有争议。

普京再次当总统,

欧盟容克、美国川普,

纷纷屈膝表祝贺。

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