每日新闻更新-希腊停滞的改革 The Daily Update – Greece’s stalling reforms

随着希腊逐渐远离必要的金融改革,该国再次成为新闻焦点。希腊的第三次救助计划将于今年八月结束。要获得最后一轮860亿欧元的救助,欧元集团要求希腊在四月份推出发展战略,并制定了88条立法任务要求希腊在6月21日之前完成。另外,欧元区各国财政部长并没有就任何中期债务救助达成共识,更不要说长期救助措施。随着不确定性的持续,要重复去年债券超购的情况,越来越有挑战,成本也更高。

虽然政府最近放松了2015年制定的资本控制,将月度提款限额从1800欧元提高至2300欧元,但似乎并没有其他任何实质进展。政府拖延兑现某些行业私有化的承诺,这尤能说明问题。唯一明显的积极行动是努力解决不履约贷款,把某些不履约贷款实体整合成新建立的“坏账银行”。另外,欧洲稳定机制(ESM)愿意作为欧元区坏账银行到2019年之前的金融支撑。

根据国际货币基金组织的数据,希腊GDP季度报告在影子经济中躲避了政府。这让税收恶化,但并不能只怪企业,他们也想避开大量官样文章和高额管理成本。据经济合作组织预测,旅游业的管理成本高达所有成本的70%,这看上去难以置信,不但鼓励不合规行为,而且挫败了几乎所有领域必需的投资(外资和本地)。另外,不可避免的人才流失以及必要的增税做法,加上养老金的减少,几乎毫无疑问地会限制家庭消费,而目前家庭消费的增长率仅为0.65%。

三家主流评级机构认为希腊的发展展望积极,但给予了垃圾级B3/B的评级。即使希腊努力达到目标基本预算盈余的3.5%,收益率达到4%-5%,仍很难看到利好的一面,因为公共债务非常不可持续,占GDP的176%。根据我们的外国净资产分析,希腊仅为1级,希腊处于该处境已经超过十年,预期还将至少再维持十年。

最后,祝大家圆周率日快乐!今天对奇客来说是个特殊的日子,今天也是爱因斯坦的生日,但让人悲伤的是,从今天起,我们就又失去了一位天才巨人——史蒂芬·霍金。用他的话说:“记住要仰望星空,不要低头看脚下。”

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