每日新闻更新-鲍威尔的美联储证词和个人观点 The Daily Update – Powell’s Fed testimony and personal views

哲罗姆·鲍威尔作为美联储主席首次向众议院金融服务委员会发表证词,这是今天的主要话题。(除非你在伦敦,因为伦敦现在最大的话题可能是这场近年来罕见的大雪,已经下了足有几英尺厚。当然,这场所谓的“俄罗斯暴风雪”远没达到当年在莫斯科的那场零下20度的暴风雪。)

昨天,鲍威尔再次描述了美国经济近期的发展,特别指出去年商业投资大幅增长,促进了生产力的提高。这是进一步提高工资所需的,又反过来增加了美联储继续推行利率正常化的信心,用于恢复稳健的经济增长和强劲的劳力市场。然而,鲍威尔也很清楚,通胀水平一直萎靡,并低于FOMC认为会长期保持的2%的水平。之后又发表了多条清晰的提示,美联储更注重核心PCE,这是衡量未来通胀的更好指标,2017年12月的同比增长率为1.5%。

鲍威尔最后就未来利率发表了评论:“在评估未来几年的合适货币政策时,FOMC会继续在经济过热以及PCE价格通胀水平稳定保持在2%之间维持平衡。很多因素影响未来经济展望,美国经济前些年面临的不利因素现在有了转机,特别是财政政策变得更具有刺激效果,美国出口需求稳步提升。虽然最近有所波动,但金融适应性仍保持良好状态。同时,通胀率低于2%的长期目标值。在FOMC看来,逐步提高美联储基金利率将更好地推动这两大目标的实现。”

单从这段正式确认逐步提高联邦基金利率的评论,我们不能预期到太多市场反应,不能预测市场对今年加息的预期概率变化。在该评论发出后,美国10年期国债的收益率小幅下跌至2.85%。然而,随着市场逐步消化鲍威尔的评论,包括不少很像是他个人观点,股市和债市都出现了抛售,国债收益曲线略趋于扁平,美元走强。标普500指数下跌1.27%,美国10年期国债收益率为2.90%,比上周在高于预期的CPI数据公布后出现的峰值低5点。

我们不认为只因为鲍威尔个人认为自去年12月份以来经济回稳,就一定能保证今年会有3次甚至4次加息。但我们认同美联储认为经济稳健以及通胀不高的观点。市场将如何应对一个更善于表达的美联储主席,这将是很有趣的事情。鲍威尔有近6年的时间在FOMC任职,同时相较于耶伦这样的重量级人物,他的经济学和货币政策背景更为薄弱,实际上,他是美联储30年以来首位没有经济学博士学位的主席。

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