每日新闻更新-卡塔尔 The Daily Update – Qatar

本周,卡塔尔公布了最新的《2018-2020年国家发展战略》。这篇333页的文件涵盖了诸如基础设施建设、经济多元化、自然资源管理以及社会和环境的可持续发展等领域。该规划旨在提高效率和生产力,同时将政府开支降至GDP的21.2%,并实现小规模预算盈余。文件预测卡塔尔在该时期的经济增速为2.1%-3.3%。

延续上一个方案的政策,本次方案仍将深入发展基础设备建设作为提高效率和竞争力的重要因素。国际货币基金(IMF)组织预测,卡塔尔的基础设施项目规模达到2000亿美元,占2017年GDP的121%,这不但有利于为2022年世界杯做准备,也有助于对该国依赖油气的单一经济结构进行多元化改革。该方案也更加强调建立知识型经济,促进私有企业的发展。

该战略的另一个目标是提高农业和渔业生产的自给程度,到2022年分别满足国内需求的30%和65%。去年同沙特阿拉伯的外交风波初步影响了卡塔尔的进口,这更突显了农业和渔业自给能力不足带来的问题,必须建立新的贸易路线。自2017年6月以来,沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、巴林和埃及中止了同卡塔尔的外交关系和运输线。然而,《IMF工作人员结束对卡塔尔2018年第四条磋商访问》中提出警告称,鉴于参与者的低效率,食品生产倡议不应变成替代进口的政策,而应该用于开发地区和全球价值链。

美国新任国务卿麦克·蓬佩奥是否会继续上任雷克斯·蒂勒森在沙特和卡塔尔问题的斡旋策略,尚有待观察。重要的是,美国在卡塔尔设有最大的地区军事基地,而沙特和卡塔尔的关系可能会继续紧张。

卡塔尔的国外净资产让它能够抵御自2014年油价下滑的市场环境以及2017年外交风波期间的任何资金外流造成的影响。穆迪、标普和惠誉对卡塔尔主权评级分别为Aa3、AA-和AA-,反应了该国的资产实力,而三家评级机构共同给出的消极发展展望则体现了地缘政治风险。我们认为据目前水平来看,风险收益平衡仍具有吸引力: 2040年到期的票息率为6.4%的卡塔尔债券收益率为4.7%,根据我们的评估模型,该债券约有5档信用缓冲。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.