每日新闻更新-零售销售/人口 The Daily Update – Retail sales / demographics

昨天公布的美国零售销售数据令人失望,二月份增长率为负值-0.1%,这是销售数据第三个月为负值,低于市场预期。如果深入查看整体销售结构,会发现全部表现疲软。表现最差的部门是百货公司、家具陈设以及日用百货。一些领域表现出色,例如体育用品、业余爱好和建筑材料

鉴于零售销售令人失望,目光专注点在通货膨胀。正如之前的报道,我们认为全球通货膨胀遭受挫折。虽然全球经济有所复苏以及持续推行的量化宽松政策,通货膨胀仍难以达到央行设定的目标。对美国来说,不太乐观的领域是人口。自2009年以来,美国人口仅增长了0.76%,比上一个十年的增速减缓了20%以上。

有很多研究专门讨论人口变化及其对国家通货膨胀和GDP的影响。美联储2016年报告分析总结了经济发展与合作组织多个成员国的人口老龄化问题:它评估了人口对经合组织成员国经济发展的影响,发现最近几年人口变化对多个经济体的经济放缓产生了很大的影响。按照年龄组进行人口规划的预期模型也显示人口因素将继续限制未来几年GDP的增长。

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