每日新闻更新-俄罗斯欧元债券 The Daily Update – Russian Eurobonds

有消息称俄罗斯将在本月要发行欧元债券。俄国财政部长Anton Siluanov曾表示今年可能发行总计30亿美元国债,这次的欧元债券将是该计划的一部分。前不久,标普将俄罗斯的长期主权信用评级上调一档至BBB-,同惠誉的评级保持一致。因此俄罗斯国债现在符合大部分全球投资级别债券指数,因此预期需求会很大。

看上去俄罗斯希望尽快发行国债,尽管近几年通常在第二季度发行。俄罗斯希望在未来几周发行债券有多种原因。首先,预期美联储可能在3月21日加息,因此在这之前发行可以降低借款成本,尽管市场已经考虑到美联储将于本月加息。第二,盟国财政部长Steven Mnuchin于今年二月底在加州大学洛杉矶分校演讲时警告称,预期将在未来30天内对俄罗斯施加制裁。但今年早些时候财政部报告已经指出,目前不会施加新的制裁。虽然目前西方对俄罗斯的制裁没有扩展到国债,但有必要在任何制裁声明发出之前刺激需求。

虽然俄罗斯基准曲线相较于美国国债曲线的收益溢价已经接近历史低值,但仍提供相对有吸引力的收益,特别是对亟需收益的投资者来说。10年期美元国债的收益率约为4.40%,30年期收益率约为5.1%。由于担心会有新的制裁,去年普京总统声明本土投资者可优先获得今年发行的外币债券,以此作为将资本回笼至俄罗斯境内的便捷机制。然而,让足够多的外国投资者参与购买债券是保持流动性的关键所在。

除非这些债券能提供有吸引力的风险调整回报率和足够多的信用缓冲,否则我们不会将其纳入我们的投资组合。这些债券需要比目前基准曲线更大的价差。例如,根据我们的相对价值模型,美元发行的30年期债券目前的交易价格被高估一档。

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