每日新闻更新-美国关税与就业数据以及中国 The Daily Update – US tariffs and employment, and China

今天对资本市场来说是充满了风险基调的一天。特朗普和金正恩将于五月会面,这将是一次具有里程碑意义的会面,在众多热议话题中,无核化将是热门话题之一。在该声明发出之前,特朗普正式批准了按照灵活性原则对钢材和铝材分别征收25%和10%的关税,并强调地区盟友的重要性,用特朗普的话说,真正的朋友加拿大和墨西哥目前可获豁免。该关税将在未来几周将生效,根据不同的国家/地区,其关税税率将进行灵活调整,特朗普称应税国家/地区可能减少也可能增加。

昨天上午早些时候,中国公布了贸易数据,数据表现出人意料,出口增加44.5%(而预期按照美元计算增长11%),贸易收支远非市场预期的赤字水平,而是有337.4亿美元的顺差。重要的是,中国对美国的贸易顺差增至210亿美元,达到二月份有史以来最高顺差额。因此中国很可能是美国会增加关税率的对象。

在周一召开的全国人民代表大会中,李克强总理并没有直接回应关税威胁,但却提到中国将保护其利益,加大市场开放,降低对外商投资的限制。中国外交官张业遂在本周早些时候表示,中国不希望同美国展开贸易战争,但也绝不会对中国利益受损而坐视不管。

中国是目前为止最大的钢材和铝材生产商,约占全球总产量的50%(根据去年的数据),然而,中国也是其产能的最大消费者,出口仅占全球出口额的23%和11%,我们不确定美国钢铝关税能对中国的经济和贸易平衡造成巨大影响。实际上,正如我们之前提到的,中国出口到美国的钢材和铝材已降到中国总出口额的0.2%,这从总体来看已经无关紧要了。中国钢铁工业协会副总书记表示,“该关税对中国的影响并不大,没有什么能阻止特朗普,我们对他已经习以为常了”。即使这一政令对中国不构成直接打击,但对美国来说更大的风险是隔离自身(注意欧盟官员的报复性评论),而随着中国开放市场、降低对外商投资的限制,将加大国际参与度。

美国二月份就业数据也颇为复杂,非农就业数据显示新增岗位31.3万个(预期为20.5万),对一月份的数据进行了上调,但失业率仍保持在4.1%(预期为4.0%),参与率增长从62.7%增长至63%。然而更重要的是,平均小时报酬环比增长仅为0.1%,同比增长2.6%,低于一月数据。这对投资者来说,很显然美国的劳动市场持紧,因此市场颇为关注美联储及其紧缩周期,如果通货膨胀实际在加快,那么它将如何进行渐进式正常化,毕竟工资是驱动核心通胀的关键。一月份的平均小时报酬增长率为2.9%(今天下调至2.8%),是自2009年以来的最高水平,之后市场抛售正是通胀风险上行的结果,因此会担忧美联储缩表。然而,上周美联储新任主席哲罗姆·鲍威尔在证词中表示,工资不会造成任何上行风险,美联储将维持渐进式正常化途径。这几乎可以肯定3月21日会加息,市场已充分认为2018年将有三次加息。

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