每日新闻更新 — 标准普尔遭遇1929年以来最差的开端 The Daily Update – The worst S&P start since 1929

现在我们已经到了2018年的第二个季节,新季伊始,我们迎来了一片哀嚎,标准普尔的股票指数创下了自1929年以来4月份最糟糕的开端。尽管人们对接下来的担心看上去非常真实,但是有人会说,这才(刚刚)过去一个交易季度,而且有四分之一可供投资的世界都在假期。

有关目前美联储(Fed)的态势,我们经常提出种种问题;概括地说就是,使用了六年时间的咄咄逼人的量化宽松政策(QE)和前所未有的低利率手段才将美国的增长提高到了大约2.5%。伴随着对量化宽松政策的取消和对资产负债表的削减,以及同时通过利率的杠杆对货币政策的收紧,这种策略一直让我们感到有点担心,尽管减税将在近期内起到帮助的作用。

加上目前的贸易摩擦򁢲— 中国在周末通过对128种从美国进口的产品征收关税的手段进行报复,以及一位似乎想要疏远靠近或者远离美国边境的全球绝大部分主要的经济大国的美国总统,人们对全球的前景充其量只不过是并不清晰而已。

预计“北美自由贸易协定”(NAFTA)谈判将在下周继续,因为特朗普总统的团队透露出信息,他希望在两周内原则上达成协议。这导致了墨西哥比索的坚挺,在过去十个交易日中,墨西哥比索兑美元的汇率进一步上涨了3%。很显然,这使得墨西哥的出口比原来贵了一些,(但是)奇怪的是,加拿大元几乎是纹丝不动,这使得特朗普在这次交易中的(进攻)目标明朗化。

所以,我们新的季度开始只是迎来了一个并不怎么清晰的前景;新任的美联储主席似乎也有相同的看法,因为鉴于目前的前景对于过度收紧政策的做法他看上去持少许的乐观态度。其他成员也好像不再坚持原来的预期,因为在周末的时候,哈克(Harker)— 尽管并不具有选举权 — 这样表示,他预见今年的加息再有两次即可,而有选举权的博斯蒂克(Bostic)则坚持原来的观点:这一年总共有3次加息才为合适。

我们将继续关注目前的政治和经济数据,并保留我们的观点:全球经济增长的风险在接下来的十二个月中呈下降趋势。  

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