每日新闻更新 —“北美自由贸易协定”和 AMLO The Daily Update – Mexico: NAFTA and AMLO

墨西哥比索是迄今为止兑美元表现较好的货币之一(+ 6.5%)。“北美自由贸易协定”的重新谈判取得进展有助于投资者的情绪,虽然在某些有争议的问题上仍需达成协议,但美国副总统迈克·彭斯(Mike Pence)在美洲峰会上表示:‘我在离开这次峰会的时候,非常希望我们在重启“北美自由贸易协定”谈判之后现在已经接近谈拢'。此话一出,墨西哥比索在本周末已经出现了一些卖盘,也许投资者此时正关注着将于7月1日举行的墨西哥总统选举 — 极左派候选人安德烈斯·曼努埃尔·洛佩斯·奥布拉多(通常被称为 AMLO(‘反洗钱联盟’))在民意调查中处于领先的位置。

AMLO 表示,如果他当选总统,他打算对能源改革政策进行重新考虑,这将引起一定程度的政策上的不稳定。然而,要对能源改革这样的关键政策领域进行重大改变,AMLO 至少需要获得众议院和参议院两院的多数票,而一项修正案则需要来自每个议院的三分之二的票数。在目前这个阶段,AMLO 的莫雷纳党(Morena Party)看起来不太可能有足够的票数来实现这一目标(参议院和众议院也都在7月1日举行选举)。AMLO 曾经几次谈到会举行能源改革公投一事,但在2014年的时候最高法院已经粉碎了他的政党在这个问题上提出的进行公民投票的要求。然而,从他在竞选中谈论的既要对改革进行审查但同时也要尊重现有的以合法方式获得的合同的情况来看,似乎正在出现一个更切合实际的方法。本周早些时候,AMLO 选择的财政部长部长(如果 AMLO 能赢得大选的话)卡洛斯·乌尔苏阿也强调了‘对“北美自由贸易协定”的绝对支持”’,并指出‘洛佩斯·奥布拉多曾表示,希望(该谈判)能够延迟一下,以便我们可以把(这边的事情)做完,不过(那样做也)有一定的好处,因为如果没有“北美自由贸易协定”,同时又有总统选举,市场就有可能紧张起来。’

穆迪在其4月将墨西哥前景从负面转向稳定,并且确定了它的A3评级,由此来看“北美自由贸易协定”的谈判重启造成的风险在下降,他们认为,选举结果并不会改变积极的财政和经济趋势:‘不管哪个候选人和政党在总统选举和立委选举中获胜,目前还不清楚新任领导就一定要改变政策的方向或逆转已经实施的改革的方向。该国的制度框架及其一系列制衡措施限制了潜在的对政策的逆转所带来的信贷下行的风险。’

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